Sep 14, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) speaks with Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell during the first half against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images The first key here is that Dallas technically isn’t eliminated from the playoffs yet. It’s highly unlikely they sneak their way in, but it isn’t impossible at the moment. If they lose, that likely closes their case, though, so this is a must-win game for them.
The Vikings have struggled to consistently produce offensively throughout the 2025 season. They rank 21st in the NFL in points (.350) per play, and that number drops to .293 on the road. They’re averaging only 16 points per game on the road this season.
J.J. McCarthy has looked awful in his first season starting, although he is coming off his best game thus far. Overall, Minnesota is averaging 19.0 points per game with McCarthy at quarterback. He’s scored 22+ points in 3 of his 7 games in 2025.
The Cowboys don’t have a good defense, and there isn’t really any way around that. They do get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, though. They currently lead the NFL in pressure rate (32.2%), which is extra impressive because they don’t rank near the top of the league in blitz rate this season.
Dallas made some moves at the trade deadline, and they’re getting healthier on defense. That’s allowed them to perform better than they previously have. Although we’ve seen them struggle against the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions in recent games, they held the Las Vegas Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles to 21 or fewer points in two games before that.
I expect that the Cowboys will continue to struggle against high-level offenses, but that isn’t what they’re facing this week. The Vikings have struggled to find continued success on offense, and I don’t expect McCarthy to find a ton of success against a team that is going to pressure him throughout the night.
Where to Bet: Minnesota Vikings under 21.5 points | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 22-31
