Starship’s most recent test flight sent the SpaceX megarocket to orbit for the first time, marking a major technical milestone that will pave the way for commercial viability. Still, that road remains long and arduous, and Starship’s next test will be even more challenging.
During SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, CEO Elon Musk said the company will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the upper stage during the next test flight, slated for no earlier than November 8. While SpaceX has successfully caught the booster three times before, this will be the first attempt to catch the upper stage.
If all goes according to plan, Flight 15 “will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” Musk said. “The only way that we can extend consciousness beyond Earth on a sustained basis is with a fully reusable orbital launch vehicle. So this is, I think, a profound technology milestone in the history of civilization and consciousness.”
Starship’s next trick
During the earnings call, SpaceX presented a Flight 15 simulation, opening with views of one of the two “Mechazilla” launch and catch tower systems at Starbase in South Texas. These massive structures are equipped with “chopstick arms” designed to catch a returning booster or upper stage.
The video of the simulation then pans up to show an upper stage, which SpaceX calls “Ship,” falling back to Earth in a horizontal “belly flop” position, presumably having completed an orbital flight. Before reaching Mechazilla, Ship performs a short burn to reduce its speed and flip upright into a vertical tower catch position. It descends between the chopstick arms, which then close around Ship.
The simulation does not show the Super Heavy booster catch, but it will follow a similar procedure using Starbase’s other Mechazilla tower.
“I’d say it’s more likely than not that this succeeds next flight,” Musk said.
Catching the booster should be relatively straightforward—SpaceX has already proven it can do so. The bigger challenge will be catching Ship for the first time, as it will be returning from orbital altitude and therefore traveling at much higher speed. A successful catch will also hinge on the full completion of Ship’s orbital flight. If an engine issue or some other anomaly forces the rocket to return to Earth early—like last time—Ship won’t reenter the atmosphere over Starbase.
Since Flight 14, SpaceX has undoubtedly been working to address the engine failures that ended Starship’s first orbital flight prematurely. The megarocket has flown with SpaceX’s upgraded Raptor 3 engines three times now, and they have malfunctioned every time. It’s certainly possible that could happen again.
Catching both stages of Starship is essential to the rocket’s full reusability. Being able to launch the same rocket over and over again would dramatically cut the cost of spaceflight, making currently infeasible missions economically viable.
Even after SpaceX achieves this major technical milestone, the company will still have a lot of work to do to make Starship fully and rapidly reusable. Re-flying an upper stage and ramping up Starship’s launch cadence will be the next big goals. A successful double catch will be the key that unlocks a new phase in the megarocket’s development.
