Predicting the preseason AP Top 25 CFB rankings
- No. 25-21
- No. 20-16
- No. 15-11
- No. 10-5
- No. 5-1
The college football offseason is anything but linear. It’d be one thing if we just went from Indiana winning the national championship and straightforward into Week 0 with only departures and recruits to consider. But the transfer portal has taken to shaking up college football rankings and the way we see the sport, and spring practice does the same — especially when a transfer QB from one of the top teams in the country ends up potentially being ineligible, which is what Texas Tech is facing with Brendan Sorsby.
But now, spring camp is in the window and we’re full steam ahead to the start of the 2026 season. More pointedly, though, we’re waiting for the preseason AP Top 25 college football rankings to drop. Don’t worry, we’ll play spoiler (or at least try to) as we’re projecting and prediction what the Top 25 rankings will look like when we get there.
No. 25-21
25. Louisville Cardinals
At this point, we should believe in Jeff Brohm. Lincoln Kienholz is the latest castoff quarterback from a larger Power Four program that he’s taken at Louisville and the Cardinals were busy filling out the roster in the transfer portal. What the overall ceiling of this team ends up being might be anyone’s guess, but it does stand to reason that the Cardinals could be among the biggest challengers in the ACC this season.
24. Clemson Tigers
Speaking of potential ACC challengers, it does feel like water will find its level when it comes to the public perception of Clemson. Last year was an unmitigated disaster by Dabo Swinney’s standards, but I have a feeling we’ll see something of a bounce-back from the Tigers as Christopher Vizzina takes the reins on offense. It might not be a natty ceiling for the Tigers, but they might still be better and higher regarded than fans expect.
23. Florida Gators
Consider me a believer in Jon Sumrall as Florida’s next head coach. Aaron Philo has some serious upside, especially with Buster Faulkner coming with him. We might still be a year or two away from the Gators competing for a spot in the SEC Championship Game, but I do believe we’ll see massive strides from the 4-8 debacle of last season. And who knows, maybe Florida arrives under Sumrall even sooner than expected.
22. Missouri Tigers
The shooting involving Ahmad Hardy was terrifying for anyone who loves college football, but it does appear that the Mizzou star is on the other side of it and working to recover, with reports even saying he hopes to be ready by the season-opener. Austin Simmons replacing Beau Pribula and what that means for the evolution of the passing game could determine the Tigers’ ceiling, but Missouri should be considered an SEC threat once again.
21. Washington Huskies
Putting aside all of the will-he, won’t-he with Demond Williams and Washington this offseason, we’re still talking about one of the best quarterbacks in the country and who now has a window of opportunity to lead the Huskies to fill a void behind the absolute top teams in the Big Ten. Jedd Fisch’s security now in staying with the program should be a rising tide that lifts Washington into more national prominence than a year ago.
No. 20-16
20. Utah Utes
Believing in the talent of Devon Dampier isn’t hard. He was electric at New Mexico, and then brought that voltage to Utah last season. However, there might be turmoil within the Utes program with Kyle Whittingham’s departure than we realized, which is a bit worrisome. At the same time, the Big 12 should have the same three teams vying for the top of the league this year, and that includes Utah based on the talent and a hope that the coaching prowess continues under Morgan Scalley.
19. SMU Mustangs
Despite Kevin Jennings continuing to be one of the most fun players in the sport, it felt as if SMU was almost forgotten about last season. They shouldn’t be forgotten about this year, though. The Mustangs offense should be lethal under Rhett Lashlee again, but the focus of the offseason was improving the defnese and they’ve brought plenty of help into the building. That could mean a step back forward for this program in 2026.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
This is where I want to again make it clear that I’m projecting how the AP Top 25 will shake out, not what I would do. Personally, I don’t think Tennessee is a Top 25 team in the country this year, at least not where we are right now. There is upside as Josh Heupel tries to settle a QB battle between youth and experience with a lower ceiling. But one thing that Heupel has made clear in Knoxville is that the floor has been raised substantially, which is probably the Vols’ best argument to be in this spot.
17. BYU Cougars
Kalani Sitake got his Crumbl money and is still at BYU this season, which means we should probably be high on the Cougars again. The turmoil in Lubbock has opened a massive window of opportunity for this team as Bear Bachmeier returns for another year. I don’t think they’ll fully get the respect from AP voters, if we’re being honest, but this offense should be lethal this season, and the hope is that new DC Kelly Poppinga can have the defense at least come close to matching that effectiveness.
16. Penn State Nittany Lions
The mass overhaul in Happy Valley should ultimately be beneficial for Penn State as Matt Campbell takes over. Rocco Becht is a proven quarterback in the sport with a bevy of experience, and the transfers in from Iowa State are numerous while mixed in with some of the Nittany Lions talent as well. With an easy schedule, relatively speaking, on deck, Penn State should perform at a high level this season, even if they still aren’t at a national championship ceiling.
No. 15-11
15. Michigan Wolverines
The first year of Bryce Underwood didn’t totally deliver on the promise of the young quarterback — and then a tumultuous December followed for Michigan, to say the least. But Kyle Whittingham is now at the helm and there are real signs for optimism with this team. The Wolverines should have one of the better defensive units in the country, but the upside may depend on how big of a leap Underwood and, thus, the offense takes.
14. USC Trojans
It felt like Lincoln Riley was finally on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff last year with USC, but couldn’t get his group over the hump in the biggest games that mattered. But Jayden Maiava returns as one of the most underrated QBs in the country, the defense has been on the steady incline over the past couple of years, and there’s reason to believe that USC could compete for a College Football Playoff spot.
13. Ole Miss Rebels
Trinidad Chambliss being ruled eligible for the 2026 season with Ole Miss is obviously massive for the Rebels. He was phenomenal throughout the year, but reached stardom with his CFP heroics. But there are questions with the Rebels with Pete Golding stepping in for Lane Kiffin in Oxford. Not only does that leave at least some coaching uncertainty, but there have been some key departures as well. Even still, Chambliss and Kewan Lacy give the Rebs a pair of stars to lean on.
12. LSU Tigers
From the Lane Train’s former team to his new squad. There might not be a higher-variance team in college football this season than LSU. It feels just as likely that they go 7-5 as it does that they reel off 11 wins and make the playoff. There are so many avenues this team could take its season down, but the upside is tremendous. How soon we forget how good Sam Leavitt was at ASU, and what the power of the Tigers can be when they have the right guy at the helm.
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Brendan Sorsby situation has thrown a titanic wrench into the Texas Tech season. The hope was that the transfer from Cincinnati was going to be able to raise the floor and ceiling of the offense to hopefully match what should be an elite defense once again. Likely now facing the prospect of playing without him, this is still going to be a darn good team, and maybe still the favorite in the Big 12. However, it might be less of a runaway choice than it was before the Sorsby news.
No. 10-5
10. Oklahoma Sooners
We’ve arrived at another projected ranking that I personally don’t vibe with. There’s logic in buying into year two for John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle together, and Brent Venables has also established his elite defensive footprint with Oklahoma. Yet, the Sooners have one of the toughest schedules in the country to contend with, while also not being a certainty on offense even when you account for upward growth. Maybe they prove me wrong, but I have some doubts.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
Maybe I’m just an SEC hater right now, but I’m also not completely buying in on Alabama. The floor is undoubtedly high for the Crimson Tide no matter if it’s Austin Mack or Keelon Russell who ends up taking the QB1 spot. At the same time, there have been systematic issues for this program under Kalen DeBoer to this point that have held them back from being what we’re used to seeing out of Tuscaloosa, and I just can’t shake the feeling some of those issues will persist.
8. Texas A&M Aggies
On the one hand, Texas A&M had a phenomenal season a year ago that they can absolutely build upon, all while losing offensive coordinator Colin Klein might be addition by subtraction. At the same time, the Aggies have still struggled to get over the hump despite heading in an obviously better direction under Mike Elko than they were under Jimbo Fisher. And having doubts about Marcel Reed, particularly as a passer, is warranted. In the end, though, I don’t think A&M is leaving the CFP mix.
7. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana isn’t leaving the College Football Playoff mix either. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t take somewhat of a step back. Josh Hoover has talent and has some legit weaponry around him, while the Hoosier defense still looks formidable as well. There’s a ton of turnover on this roster, though, and enough changes — especially from Mendoza to Hoover — that make you think a national championship repeat might be at least slightly far-fetched. Then again, doubting Curt Cignetti hasn’t been wise since he arrived in Bloomington.
6. Miami Hurricanes
One of the lasting impressions from Miami’s run to the CFP National Championship Game a year ago is that Mario Cristobal has this thing running hot. They aren’t going to slow down, and bringing in Darian Mensah to replace Carson Beck stands as clear evidence of as much. This is a Hurricanes team that lost two first-round picks on defense from last year’s team and has to reshape the offensive line a bit as well. They’re the clear top dog in the ACC — but that could’ve been said last year, and they still had to squeak into the playoff as an at-large team.
No. 5-1
5. Georgia Bulldogs
The more you look at the Georgia Bulldogs, the more you can talk yourself into them in a major way. Gunner Stockton made real strides last year, but this feels like an old-school offense with their rushing attack that will play right into OC Mike Bobo’s strength, while the defense has a ton of experience and just as much top-end talent. The Dawgs might not be the most exciting iteration we’ve seen under Kirby Smart, but they’re going to be a tough one to beat at any point in the season.
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
It’s all right there in front of Notre Dame this season. Their schedule is more than navigable (which is why they have a win total set at 11.5 at most sportsbooks for now) and roll into the College Football Playoff. And why not? C.J. Carr could be in for a breakout and the offense should be solid, while the defense can put its name in the mix for being one of the best units in the country. As is always the case with the Fighting Irish, though, it’s more about making good on the opportunity in front of them.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dante Moore’s return to Eugene is a massive boon for the Ducks this season, and he’s not the only one. Oregon hasn’t been shy on experience throughout Dan Lanning’s tenure with the way he’s worked the transfer portal, but this does feel like the best chance he’s had at competing for a natty since arriving with the blend of talent, experience, and time in his program. There’s going to be a case for the Ducks coming in at No. 2 in the AP Top 25, but I think they narrowly get edged out.
2. Texas Longhorns
By the time we get to the preseason AP Top 25 rankings, the consensus will likely once again be that Texas is for real. There’s more evidence this time around, however. The Arch Manning hype going into last year was largely unfounded or projection, and he fell on his face early. But he was also one of the best quarterbacks in the sport in the second half of the year. With an elite group of skill position players, an offensive line that should gel, and a top-tier defense, the expectation for the Longhorns should be viably competing for a national title, and anything less is a bit of a disappointment.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Those national championship expecations also apply to Ohio State, a team that right now looks like it might be a lock to be ranked No. 1 overall in the AP Top 25. With Julian Sayin returning with Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson, though, it makes sense. This offense may be even more dangerous than it was a year ago, and the offensive line should be improved on top of that. Furthermore, this defense is loaded with guys itching to put their names on the map. It’s all lining up for the Buckeyes to potentially reclaim their crown as the dominant force out of the Big Ten this year.
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