Predicting the preseason AP Top 25 CFB rankings
The college football offseason is anything but linear. It’d be one thing if we just went from Indiana winning the national championship and straightforward into Week 0 with only departures and recruits to consider. But the transfer portal has taken to shaking up college football rankings and the way we see the sport, and spring practice does the same — especially when a transfer QB from one of the top teams in the country ends up potentially being ineligible, which is what Texas Tech is facing with Brendan Sorsby.
But now, spring camp is in the window and we’re full steam ahead to the start of the 2026 season. More pointedly, though, we’re waiting for the preseason AP Top 25 college football rankings to drop. Don’t worry, we’ll play spoiler (or at least try to) as we’re projecting and prediction what the Top 25 rankings will look like when we get there.
10. Oklahoma Sooners
We’ve arrived at another projected ranking that I personally don’t vibe with. There’s logic in buying into year two for John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle together, and Brent Venables has also established his elite defensive footprint with Oklahoma. Yet, the Sooners have one of the toughest schedules in the country to contend with, while also not being a certainty on offense even when you account for upward growth. Maybe they prove me wrong, but I have some doubts.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
Maybe I’m just an SEC hater right now, but I’m also not completely buying in on Alabama. The floor is undoubtedly high for the Crimson Tide no matter if it’s Austin Mack or Keelon Russell who ends up taking the QB1 spot. At the same time, there have been systematic issues for this program under Kalen DeBoer to this point that have held them back from being what we’re used to seeing out of Tuscaloosa, and I just can’t shake the feeling some of those issues will persist.
8. Texas A&M Aggies
On the one hand, Texas A&M had a phenomenal season a year ago that they can absolutely build upon, all while losing offensive coordinator Colin Klein might be addition by subtraction. At the same time, the Aggies have still struggled to get over the hump despite heading in an obviously better direction under Mike Elko than they were under Jimbo Fisher. And having doubts about Marcel Reed, particularly as a passer, is warranted. In the end, though, I don’t think A&M is leaving the CFP mix.
7. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana isn’t leaving the College Football Playoff mix either. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t take somewhat of a step back. Josh Hoover has talent and has some legit weaponry around him, while the Hoosier defense still looks formidable as well. There’s a ton of turnover on this roster, though, and enough changes — especially from Mendoza to Hoover — that make you think a national championship repeat might be at least slightly far-fetched. Then again, doubting Curt Cignetti hasn’t been wise since he arrived in Bloomington.
6. Miami Hurricanes
One of the lasting impressions from Miami’s run to the CFP National Championship Game a year ago is that Mario Cristobal has this thing running hot. They aren’t going to slow down, and bringing in Darian Mensah to replace Carson Beck stands as clear evidence of as much. This is a Hurricanes team that lost two first-round picks on defense from last year’s team and has to reshape the offensive line a bit as well. They’re the clear top dog in the ACC — but that could’ve been said last year, and they still had to squeak into the playoff as an at-large team.
No. 5-1
5. Georgia Bulldogs
The more you look at the Georgia Bulldogs, the more you can talk yourself into them in a major way. Gunner Stockton made real strides last year, but this feels like an old-school offense with their rushing attack that will play right into OC Mike Bobo’s strength, while the defense has a ton of experience and just as much top-end talent. The Dawgs might not be the most exciting iteration we’ve seen under Kirby Smart, but they’re going to be a tough one to beat at any point in the season.
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
It’s all right there in front of Notre Dame this season. Their schedule is more than navigable (which is why they have a win total set at 11.5 at most sportsbooks for now) and roll into the College Football Playoff. And why not? C.J. Carr could be in for a breakout and the offense should be solid, while the defense can put its name in the mix for being one of the best units in the country. As is always the case with the Fighting Irish, though, it’s more about making good on the opportunity in front of them.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dante Moore’s return to Eugene is a massive boon for the Ducks this season, and he’s not the only one. Oregon hasn’t been shy on experience throughout Dan Lanning’s tenure with the way he’s worked the transfer portal, but this does feel like the best chance he’s had at competing for a natty since arriving with the blend of talent, experience, and time in his program. There’s going to be a case for the Ducks coming in at No. 2 in the AP Top 25, but I think they narrowly get edged out.
2. Texas Longhorns
By the time we get to the preseason AP Top 25 rankings, the consensus will likely once again be that Texas is for real. There’s more evidence this time around, however. The Arch Manning hype going into last year was largely unfounded or projection, and he fell on his face early. But he was also one of the best quarterbacks in the sport in the second half of the year. With an elite group of skill position players, an offensive line that should gel, and a top-tier defense, the expectation for the Longhorns should be viably competing for a national title, and anything less is a bit of a disappointment.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Those national championship expecations also apply to Ohio State, a team that right now looks like it might be a lock to be ranked No. 1 overall in the AP Top 25. With Julian Sayin returning with Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson, though, it makes sense. This offense may be even more dangerous than it was a year ago, and the offensive line should be improved on top of that. Furthermore, this defense is loaded with guys itching to put their names on the map. It’s all lining up for the Buckeyes to potentially reclaim their crown as the dominant force out of the Big Ten this year.
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