Every Ole Miss home basketball game, currently, is an examination of noticeable inefficiencies equivalent to lab tests, checking the health of the subject and debating the diagnosis and the prognosis.
While some fans show because they enjoy the product, far too many show up as victims of the sunken-cost fallacy, where the game isn’t that enjoyable, but the money has already been spent and attending is seen as not wasting that discretionary investment. Far too many don’t show up at all, creating a cavernous, lackluster environment in the shiny arena.
The home date against Missouri Tuesday will be more of the same as far as excitement and attendance. Ole Miss (9-10 overall, 1-6 in the Southeastern Conference) has lost 20 of its last 25 SEC games and is 22-29 overall since the beginning of last season. The Rebels have lost eight straight league home games dating back to January 2022.
Ole Miss athletics director Keith Carter will be in his seat on the west side of The Pavilion, a prime spot to view the product in real time. Most fans point to the empty seats as evidence of a monetary reason why Carter has to consider a coaching change from Kermit Davis, or at least why things can’t continue as they are.
And no doubt Carter is quickly coming to a point of needing to consider his options, but it’s not primarily about money. It’s about morale, excitement, winning instead of losing and putting a product on the floor that’s competitive and noteworthy in the SEC.
Whether it be Davis finding success or a new person attempting it, Ole Miss has to make this part of the athletics year compelling. Currently, for a large part of the fan base, it’s a time of disinterest until baseball begins.
There are loads of empty seats for basketball games, but a significant portion of them are paid for already — including the higher-priced club sections that usually have a lot of no-shows. In an effort to help attendance, Ole Miss lowered concession prices and only makes a profit from alcohol, not food.
Sparse attendance is an eyesore, but it’s not a sign of mandatory change because of just money. There’s an argument that keeping Davis would be more cost effective, though it seems to be close to even either way. Any discussion of change is and has to be because the Rebels simply can’t lose like this. The money doesn’t necessarily warrant it. The program trajectory is where the decision sits.
“I’m the athletics director; we’re supposed to be good at basketball here,” Carter told me recently.
In fewer than four weeks, Ole Miss hosts Mississippi State in basketball and Delaware in baseball. Any weather situation better than snowfall, and Swayze Field will have more spectators than the climate-controlled arena across Gertrude Ford Boulevard.
The average Mississippi high temperature on February 18 is 62 degrees. That prediction, of course, says something about the nationally-prominent baseball program starting its season, but it says as much or more about where basketball is at in Oxford. It’s not registering with the fan base. That’s the bottom line.
[Related: Turnover-plagued Rebels fall in Fayetteville]
Davis is in his fifth season at Ole Miss after a notable 16-year tenure at Middle Tennessee that included three NCAA Tournament berths and two NCAA Tournament wins. He’s 73-71 in Oxford and 31-48 in league play.
The Rebels made the NCAA Tournament as a No. 8 seed in his first season but have won 15, 16 and 13 games, respectively, in the three completed seasons since then. Ole Miss made the NIT after a 16-11 (10-8) regular season in 2021.
Ole Miss has signed a total of four four-star prospects in the current signing class and the current freshman class, but the portal additions haven’t stacked up to the performances of outgoing players at their new schools.
Davis’ current salary is $3.15 million (per the most recent contract terms release), and he’s in the second year of a four-year agreement. Should Ole Miss fire Davis, Ole Miss would owe him a $4.2 million buyout, with the first million soon after the decision and the remaining amount split into annual payments over four years.
The flexibility on the buyout is significant should a change happen because recent SEC salaries suggest a new coach would likely arrive at a lower annual value. The new salary plus Davis’ buyout wouldn’t significantly increase the operating budget. It could lower it.
There were six SEC basketball coaching changes this past offseason, and Mike White to Georgia ($3.4 million this season) was the only one above Davis’ current salary. The other five ranged from $2.4 million this season (MSU’s Chris Jans and Carolina’s Lamont Paris) to $3 million this season (Florida’s Todd Golden).
Taking out conference media rights, NCAA distributions and other conference distributions — which Ole Miss gets whether it’s undefeated or winless — the Rebels made $5,017,573 in total revenue for 2021-2022.
The projection for 2022-2023 dropped to 4,348,790 and included sizable decreases in ticket revenue (from $1.465 million to $1.144 million) and contributions (~$200,000 fewer) as well as small drops in parking and concessions revenues. A sold out Pavilion for the season would generate $2.2 million in ticket revenue. Ole Miss is losing about $1.5 million annually with current ticket sales and contributions versus a sold-out arena.
Conference and NCAA payouts to each SEC basketball program totaled more than $7 million last year and are projected at more than $7 million this year.
Ole Miss baseball, when taking out conference and NCAA payouts, had a revenue total in 2021-2022 of $7,893,629 including ticket sales of $1,985,755 and contributions of $3.58 million. Projected basketball contributions for 2022-2023 are $2.25 million. The two sports are often compared to each other in regards to fan support.
Carter’s expectation for Ole Miss basketball is to annually be in the NCAA Tournament conversation. He’s talked about facility upgrades, a more competitive league that drives up opportunities and increased institutional buy-in as reasons for the expectations. The Rebels have nine NCAA Tournament appearances in their history, with five of those coming from 1997-2002.
Since the 1930s, Ole Miss has had back-to-back conference winning records five times. Andy Kennedy’s 11-7, 10-8, 10-8 run from 2015 to 2017 are two of the five and the only three-year streak of conference winning records since the 1930s. Rob Evans has the best two-year mark, going 12-4 and 11-5 in his last two seasons in 1997 and 1998.
Carter was an All-America selection at Ole Miss as a player and was a part of three NCAA Tournament teams with the Rebels — the only three-year NCAA Tournament streak in program history.
It’s a hard job, and I don’t pretend to know the intricacies of college basketball. I don’t cover the sport day to day, and this isn’t meant to give an opinion on Davis’ retention or lack there of. I do, however, have eyes, and the attendance and the direction of the program are in a downward trajectory, causing the sport to be too much of an afterthought with a distinguishable percentage of the fan base.
It’s too popular regionally and nationally, should include too much revenue and eats up far too much of the athletics calendar for that to be the case. Whatever is possible with the program, it’s better than a six-figure decrease in ticket revenue year over year and the current streak of far too few wins versus far too many losses.
Tuesday against Missouri will be what it is — win or lose. It’s a team scrambling to make something of a season that will end outside the NCAA Tournament. But, with whomever at the helm, it will soon be time to identify the best path — be it a current one or a new one — toward an improved direction.
