Youngsville’s status as the fastest growing city in Louisiana buoyed Lafayette Parish’s growth in the past 10 years, but the south side shift may mean change for local politics.
Population counts from the 2020 Census show that while the city of Lafayette’s growth has stagnated since 2010, populations in Youngsville, Broussard and the southern parts of Lafayette Parish have boomed.
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The population shift has dropped the city of Lafayette’s majority to just 50.2% of parish-wide residents, down from 54.4% 10 years ago.
The shift illustrates the fears of advocates for city autonomy, who have pushed for Lafayette’s parish-wide mayor-president position to be split into a city-only mayor and a parish president.
Otherwise, population growth outside the city could soon mean that a majority of parish residents, who can vote on the mayor-president, will live outside the city of Lafayette.
Far from tipping
But the situation is far from reaching a tipping point, as the city of Lafayette’s slipping grasp on a majority share of the parish population hasn’t yet materialized among the parish’s registered voters.
As of Aug. 1, the city of Lafayette had a 52.3% majority and a total of 7,337 more voters than the rest of the parish. That’s down from a 54.4% majority in 2010, but at that rate of decline, the city could be another decade away from losing its majority share of voters in the parish.
What’s more, population growth on the south side of the parish has largely come through families with children, meaning that increases in the area’s overall population won’t be fully reflected in its voting-age population for years.
In Youngsville, 2020 Census counts showed 31.3% of residents are under 18, compared to just 20.9% in Lafayette. Census estimates from 2019 showed that 22.8% of Youngsville residents were under 10, compared to 11.2% in Lafayette.
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Southern shift will prompt redistricting
While registered voters are central to the city of Lafayette’s role in parish government, the Census Bureau’s recently released 2020 headcounts will dictate a more immediate change in local politics as massive population growth in the southern part of the parish will likely require a major redistricting of the Lafayette Parish Council in the coming months.
The Parish Council’s five districts were drawn in 2018 based on population figures from the 2010 census, which put the average size of each district at about 44,316 total residents.
But the parish has added some 20,000 new residents since 2010, pushing the average district size to 48,342 people, and the vast majority of new residents have landed in District 3 covering Youngsville and Broussard, which is represented by first-term Republican Parish Councilman Josh Carlson.
Based on 2020 counts, Carlson’s district now has just shy of 63,000 residents, about 15,000 more people than if the parish’s population were evenly split among the five council members.
By contrast, the parish’s only majority-Black council division, District 5, which covers downtown Lafayette and much of the city’s Northside, dropped to just over 39,000 residents. That is about 9,000 people short of the average size of each district if the parish’s 242,000 residents were divided evenly..
The disparity in council district populations will mean a major shakeup in local representation, though exactly how the districts will be redrawn, which will be up the Parish Council, hasn’t yet been determined.
In any scenario, Carlson’s District 3 will have to be pared back to redistribute its outsized population, and Rubin’s District 5 will need more residents added, potentially diluting its current 65% Black majority.
Council Chair John Guilbeau’s District 4, which covers most of south Lafayette, is the only district that borders Carlson’s and is already at 49,750 residents.
Because Lafayette’s Home Rule Charter requires council districts to be as “compact” and “contiguous” as possible, any parts of Youngsville or Broussard that Guilbeau absorbs to shrink Carlson’s district will have to be offset by giving parts of the city of Lafayette to other council districts, effectively diluting city residents’ votes among the three other council districts.
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One possible, but unlikely, scenario could see the Parish Council’s majority-Black district become majority white if Rubin’s District 5 is forced to take on neighboring white precincts in central Lafayette while giving up majority-Black precincts on the Northside to Councilman Bryan Tabor’s District 1, which covers the area around Carencro.
That configuration would make Rubin and Tabor’s districts both about 50% white by population. But given higher rates of voter registration and election day turnout among white residents in Lafayette Parish, those districts could see roughly 60% of voters in a municipal election be white.
That option would also lump most of south Lafayette in with Broussard, along somewhat similar lines as the former City-Parish Council seat previously held by City Councilwoman Nanette Cook, further diluting the city of Lafayette’s power on the Parish Council.
But the more likely scenario involves a general shift to the south for Guilbeau’s District 4 that would preserve District 5’s Black majority and keep Youngsville and Broussard together in Carlson’s District 3.
Guilbeau’s current district does not cover all of the southern part of the city of Lafayette, and likely won’t be expanded to include that area, which lies just west of Broussard, since Carlson lives there and would then have to run against Guilbeau for reelection in 2023.
Instead, Guilbeau’s District 4 would absorb unincorporated parts of the parish east of Youngsville from Carlson’s district while giving up parts of central Lafayette to Rubin’s District 5 to add to its dwindling population.
That change would leave a slightly weakened Black majority in Rubin’s district and allow Rubin to give up more rural, majority-white areas to Tabor’s District 1, which is currently 3,000 residents short of the ideal size.
Follow Andrew Capps on Twitter or send an email to acapps@theadvertiser.com.
