Sep 5, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa (7) puts the home run jacket on first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) after Guerrero hit a solo home run the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images The Blue Jays guaranteed that with a win last night, while also proving that Shohei Ohtani is indeed human. Anyways, let’s look at some hitters for a change today.
Season Record: 28-29-2, -4.31 Units
Vlad Guerrero Jr
2+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-103 DraftKings)
The Jays star has a bit of extra pressure on his plate (no pun intended) as it seems like George Springer will not play tonight.
That didn’t faze him last night as he started the Jays scoring with a 2-run homer and added another hit and run.
He’s on absolute fire this postseason, going 26-62 (.419) with 7 homers, 16 runs and 14 RBI’s in 15 games.
My advanced math tells me that’s 56 hits+runs+RBI’s, or 3.73/game. Now that’s obviously unsustainable, but if you throw it into a Poisson calculator, it suggests he has an 88% chance to hit the 2+ prop.
And of course he’s facing Blake Snell tonight, as tough a pitcher as he’s faced this postseason. But for what it’s worth, Vladdy averaged 2.25 H+R+RBI per game in the regular season, so even at that rate has a 65% chance to get there — so there’s still some edge.
So we’re basically banking on the Dodgers producing some offense tonight — and that’s always a good play.
Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage has looked excellent for the most part this postseason, but he’s likely only in there for about 4 IP or roughly 2 trips through the order.
And then it gets dicey as the Jays bullpen is still just one day’s rest off huge usage. Chris Bassitt is almost certainly unavailable and Louis Varland went the last two nights as well, so maybe not him either.
