Bullet point summary by AI
- Argentina have secured their spot in the World Cup knockout stages and will play the runner-up of Group H in the round of 32 on July 3 in Miami.
- One team stands out as the most likely opponent based on current standings and probabilities, offering Argentina a potentially favorable draw.
- The outcome of Friday’s final Group H matches will determine whether this becomes Argentina’s next challenge on the path to another final.
At four of five World Cups between 2002 and 2018, the defending champions were eliminated in the group stage, with France, Italy, Spain and Germany all crashing out early. However, there have been no for Argentina, who have already cruised through to the knockout rounds this year with a game to spare. La Albiceleste have so far beaten Algeria 3-0 and then Austria 2-0, with a certain Lionel Messi scoring all five of these goals, thereby becoming the World Cup’s all-time record goalscorer.
Thus, we now know when and where the reigning champions will be playing throughout the knockout stage, as Argentina aim to reach a seventh World Cup Final. You can find their full knockout phase schedule below, but who will be their opponents in Miami next Friday?
As Group J winners, they will face the runners-up from Group H at the Hard Rock Stadium. With one fixture to go, that could be any of the four teams in that section.
Group H standings: Where things stand ahead of final fixtures
|
Nation |
Points |
% chance of finishing 2nd |
|---|---|---|
|
Spain |
4 |
8% |
|
Uruguay |
2 |
6.4% |
|
Cape Verde |
2 |
55.3% |
|
Saudi Arabia |
1 |
30.3% |
As things stand, Argentina would be taking on Uruguay, the side they have faced on more occasions (195) than any other. The pair met in the first-ever World Cup final in Montevideo 96 years ago, a 4-2 win for Uruguay. However, a rematch for the two South American neighbors may not be in the cards.
That’s because, after only drawing with Saudi Arabia and then Cape Verde, Marcelo Bielsa’s team are staring down the barrel of elimination. La Celeste require a point against European champions Spain in Guadalajara to stand any chance of reaching the knockout stages, and would likely do so in this scenario in third place.
Given all the permutations, there is only a 6.4 percent chance that Uruguay end the night second, as noted by Football Meets Data. According to them, by far the most likely second-place finisher is Cape Verde, at 55.3 percent. The Blue Sharks have so far held both Spain and Uruguay to draws, meaning they can now reach the knockout stages, at their debut World Cup, with a win over Saudi Arabia in Houston on Friday.
Unsurprisingly, Argentina and Cape Verde have never previously met, so this would be a first. Nevertheless, despite how fun the Blue Sharks have been, this has to be a favourable draw for la Albiceleste. Should they win this, the runners-up from Group D or G would await, likely Australia/Paraguay or Belgium — which has to be considered a favorable route to a quarterfinal.
Argentina’s potential knockout stage schedule
- Round of 32: Fri., July 3, 6 p.m ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
- Round of 16: Tue., July 7, noon ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- Quarterfinal: Sat., July 11, 9 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
- Semifinal: Wed., July 15, 3 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- Final: Sun., July 19, 3 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
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