There are, quite obviously, 14 picks at stake in the NBA Draft Lottery, but the real intrigue comes with the tectonic plate-shattering consequences of certain teams jumping up into the top four or falling too far. For instance, the Indiana Pacers have a 48.9 percent chance for their pick to fall to slot 5 or 6, in which case it would convey to the Los Angeles Clippers. That’s … technically better than a coin flip, but that is a lot riding on technically.
The 2026 NBA Draft class is off-its-head awesome, and any team that can land a Top 10 pick will be happy. But the top four could legitimately be four future All-NBA guys; while there isn’t a Victor Wembanyama or Zion Williamson-hype-level top player, it’s a glorious time to be at the top … or, uh, bottom.
(All percentages courtesy of Tankathon, a wonderful website to manifest your team’s favored reality by clicking “Sim Lottery” enough times. Try it!)
1. Washington Wizards
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 14 percent
Odds for Top 4: 52.1 percent
What would happen if they got the No. 1 Pick? Justice, recompense for years of failed lottery results and bad luck with good picks in bad drafts. The Wizards have won five playoff series since they won the 1979 NBA Finals. That’s 1979, yes, the very same 1979. Finally getting a number one pick would be a beacon of hope for one of the most consistently pathetic sports franchises in the world for the last half-century.
What would happen if they fell out of the Top 4? Utter sadness and despair. The Wizards arguably don’t even need to get the first pick to consider this Draft Lottery a success; they just need to get one of Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Caleb Wilson or Darryn Peterson. If they somehow get bounced out of that opportunity, there will be wailing in the streets.
2. Indiana Pacers
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 14 percent
Odds for Top 4: 52.1 percent
What would happen if they got the No. 1 Pick? The Pacers would become an instant contender in the Eastern Conference for 2027, adding back Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac and an instantly startable player to build the future around. Again, they don’t actually need the first pick to get an incredible player, and this draft smells like a slot machine where you could rank the Top 4 in any order. There is almost no agreement at the top.
What would happen if they fell out of the Top 4? As I said in the introduction, this is the great Indiana apocalypse — if they fall out of the top four, they lose their pick to Los Angeles. The Clippers would be getting the fifth or sixth pick due to the creative protections attached to the Zubac trade, and this is arguably the most compelling lottery storyline in years. Never has there been such a feast-or-famine 52.1 percent chance of anything.
3. Brooklyn Nets
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 14 percent
Odds for Top 4: 52.1 percent
What would happen if they got the #1 Pick? The Nets would get their first franchise player out of the draft in 16 years. Despite being terrible for most of my life, the Brooklyn Nets last selected in the top four in 2010 with Derrick Favors at No. 3. Other notable “Brooklyn Nets” third overall draft picks include Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in 2017 and 2016, picks that were traded to the Boston Celtics long ago. I’m sure they’ve gotten over it.
What would happen if they fell out of the Top 4? The Nets would … not get their first franchise player out of the draft in 16 years. They’d still get a very good player, and it’s a good 5-9 player pool, but it would be disappointing for a franchise that can’t get out of the Knicks’ shadow.
4. Utah Jazz
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 11.5 percent
Odds for Top 4: 45.2 percent
What would happen if they got the No. 1 Pick? Validation for four consecutive years of unabashed tanking that forced the NBA to change the rules. If you aren’t cheating, you aren’t trying, and while the Philadelphia 76ers got made fun of for The Process, I think the Utah Jazz are the actual mascots of Tanking, truly perfected. It’s been almost half a decade of trying to lose.
What would happen if they fell out of the Top 4? Karmic justice, probably. Thankfully, the Jazz do not control their first-round pick next year and thus can’t do this chicanery again. They will almost certainly try to compete for real next year, to the glee of Lauri Markkanen; this poor guy has been on the Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz for basically his whole career. What a life.
5. Sacramento Kings
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 11.5 percent
Odds for Top 4: 45.2 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? They’d probably trade it for Deuce McBride and three second-round picks. In all seriousness, I feel for Sacramento Kings fans. I want them to be happy — this has been an unfathomably terrible few years since they first lit the beam. They even lost a tiebreaker coin flip to have slightly worse odds, this is cruel.
What would happen if they stay put? Not bad, but I know Kings fans are crossing every finger and toe they have to get in the Top 4. That is, hopefully, an un-screw-up-able situation, even for Sacramento.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 9 percent
Odds for Top 4: 37.2 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? New face of the franchise, immediately. I have no idea what’s going to happen with Ja Morant, who is still on this team by the way, but this squad has a long way to go before they can get back to the playoffs; a top pick would go a long way to resetting their fortunes.
What would happen if they stay put? If they wind up with Darius Acuff Jr., I think that’s a decent fit for a team that probably wants to move Morant sooner rather than later. Acuff is undersized but a real point guard: a boon for any young team.
7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans)
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 9.8 percent
Odds for Top 4: 43.2 percent
(Note: odds are cumulative since the Hawks get the most favorable of this pick and the Milwaukee Bucks’ pick)
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? The Derik Queen trade is officially the worst trade ever. For those out of the loop, the Pelicans traded up 10 spots in last year’s draft to take Queen at 13 and, for unknown reasons, attached an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to get it done. It was crazy when it happened, it’s crazy now, and the Hawks have even better odds because they can jump up either from their own slot or via Milwaukee, getting the best of the two no matter what. Pelicans. Hello.
What would happen if they stay put? The Hawks needs to figure out if Zaccharie Risacher is going to be … anything at all, but otherwise will welcome a lottery pick to the fold at basically any position. It’s a pretty good time to a be a Hawks fan.
8. Dallas Mavericks
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 6.7 percent
Odds for Top 4: 29 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? Bedlam, accusations of a Dallas-led criminal organization rigging the lottery over and over. The Mavericks fans got much of their post-Luka Dončić trade sadness lifted by winning the Cooper Flagg lottery and landing the future of their franchise from super low odds. Can they do it again?
What would happen if they stay put? Nothing fancy, though I bet most people forgot that Kyrie Irving is still around and will presumably play basketball for the Mavericks next year. Dallas could use a rangy wing like Nate Ament or another creator like LaBaron Philon — personally, I love Philon for any team, I think he’s great.
9. Chicago Bulls
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 4.5 percent
Odds for Top 4: 20.3 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? A glimmer of hope for Chicago basketball, which has been in hell since the late 90s. It won’t fix the constant refusal to spend money, but it will be a step in the right direction.
What would happen if they stay put? Another middling result for a team that specializes in middling results. There’s so much wrong with this team as it currently stands, and new Executive VP Bryson Graham has his work cut out for him.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 0 percent
Odds for Top 4: 2.6 percent
(Note: odds are cumulative since the Hawks get the most favorable of this pick and the Milwaukee Bucks’ pick)
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? I would freak out. This would be the luckiest, most absurdly fortunate result for a team that has mismanaged itself to oblivion; they literally cannot get the first pick because their pick must be worse than the Pelicans’ (going to the Hawks), but the fact that New Orleans was worse than them this year was like winning the Powerball. They need both picks to jump up, which is stupidly unlikely. I will lose it if they get bailed out.
What would happen if they stay put? Well, because of how many picks they’ve traded away and a boatload “least favorable” qualifiers they have on their upcoming swaps, Milwaukee is essentially guaranteed no more Top 10 picks until 2031. Who knows what any of us will be doing in 2031? I might be a chef, or like … a gardener, or something.
11. Golden State Warriors
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 2 percent
Odds for Top 4: 9.4 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? The question “what comes after Stephen Curry?” gets its answer. Their last two high picks, James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga, were franchise-altering whiffs, so another crack at a much better draft would do wonders for their murky future.
What would happen if they stay put? I wouldn’t be shocked if Golden State looked to trade their pick this year, given that they seem to have mostly abandoned the “two eras at once” thing that got them in this mess to begin with. If they think Jimmy Butler has another year in him, there might be some last-dance-type beats being played in the bay.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers)
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 1.5 percent
Odds for Top 4: 7.1 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? The downfall of civil society. Mass hysteria. The collapse of governments and financial institutions. The end of life as we know it. What do you mean the Thunder have a 7.1 percent chance at one of the Top 4 players? Get out of here.
What would happen if they stay put? A long, profound exhale for the rest of the league. This team needs to be prosecuted with antitrust legislation if they jump up, and I won’t be able to relax until I know they haven’t.
13. Miami Heat
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 1 percent
Odds for Top 4: 4.8 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? Cool? I mean, the Heat are in such a weird place as a franchise that I’m not sure what to think. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo is … something, and the Heat would not say no to more top-end talent. Nevertheless, they also might want to look into a “trajectory” in addition to scouting college players.
What would happen if they stay put? Probably something similar to this year, though I could see this as another obvious trade spot. The Heat should have an active offseason, and this would be an easy entry point to get stuff done.
14. Charlotte Hornets
Odds for No. 1 Pick: 0.5 percent
Odds for Top 4: 2.4 percent
What would happen if they jump up to the Top 4? Charlotte would become everyone’s hipster team overnight. The odds get really rough this low in the lottery, but the Hornets are already building something cool down in the Carolinas; an additional elite young player would ratchet up the ceiling quite a lot.
What would happen if they stay put? I think the Hornets will stay and pick a player, since it will all fit the timeline perfectly fine. It remains to be seen how soon Charlotte can become a legitimate contender, so I wouldn’t fault them for loading up on more young talent.
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