With Russian troops now deep inside Ukraine, and with NATO and the United Nations Security Council caught up in a series of emergency sessions in order to respond to the conflict, it may seem a bit glib to fixate on the question of how the Russian invasion will shape domestic politics in the United States. Still, it is important to also acknowledge what this moment in history means for the future trajectory of the U.S., and, in turn, what shifting attitudes in Washington might mean for U.S.-Russia relations.
It must be acknowledged upfront: Thousands if not millions of Ukrainians could be killed or displaced if the current conflict with Russia escalates further. In a few months’ time, the map of Europe may look quite different to us, assuming Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in achieving his maximalist goal of decapitating Ukraine’s political leadership in Kyiv. Given the fierce Ukrainian resistance in the face of the initial Russian onslaught, as well as the scale of Russian firepower still in reserve and arrayed across Ukraine’s three border regions, the coming destruction will undoubtedly reverberate for a generation or more across the country, the continent and—quite likely—the world.
The very threat of Russia ramping up its military aggression in Ukraine is arguably already reshaping political views in the United States. A recent AP-NORC poll found that only four in 10 Americans approve of how U.S. President Joe Biden has handled foreign policy and the U.S.-Russia relationship. Mistrust of U.S. intelligence agencies is widespread, a bruising after-effect of the politicization of the intelligence used to justify the U.S. war in Iraq 20 years ago. Most of those polled seem to agree that the U.S. needs to be cautious about its involvement in Ukraine and avoid military escalation.
Hawks and doves in both the Republican and Democratic parties, meanwhile, are lining up their arguments about whether to give more lethal aid to Ukraine as well as whether U.S. sanctions against Putin’s inner circle and Russia’s financial sector will have the desired effect, and if so, how quickly. The potentially earth-shattering implications of the conflict over Ukraine is forcing American politicians—left, right and center—to take public positions on the U.S. response to Russian aggression that they all may come to regret in time.
It is all but assured that the Russian invasion will continue to stoke the flames of polarized partisan politics in Washington for some time to come.
Not surprisingly, Biden’s chief rival, former President Donald Trump, has taken things to the next level, calling Putin, a “genius” for his “savvy” invasion of Ukraine. Just as unsurprisingly, Fox News personality Tucker Carlson has also decided to get in on the act, delivering his own rabid defense of Putin, as have Trump surrogates Erik Prince and Steve Bannon.
Expect more of the same right through to the next U.S. presidential election in November 2024. It is all but assured that the Russian invasion will continue to stoke the flames of polarized partisan politics in Washington for some time to come. What is less certain is how long it will take for the Russia-Ukraine crisis to once again threaten the stability of U.S. institutions, and in turn, when the deleterious effects of this renewed inward churning in the U.S. will bring the harm back home to Ukraine and Europe.
Make no mistake: Sympathy for Putin’s fascistic championing of “traditional” values, empathy for his harangues against “the liberal West,” and his unhinged attacks on Europe and the U.S. will be a live current that pulses through the American body politic for years to come. While many in the United States will likely take a darker view of Putin’s actions, still more will continue to believe the fantasy that an isolationist stance will insulate the U.S. from the impact of war in Europe. This kind of ahistorical thinking is, after all, why Americans, Europeans and the world are now genuinely facing the prospect of a World War III.
When you stop to think about it, the fact that it took a second Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory to wake Washington up to the reality that Putin believes he is at war with the United States is truly remarkable. The fallout from Russia’s 2014 grab for Ukraine has dominated U.S. politics for eight years running, arguably making the U.S. unrecognizable to many of its own citizens.
First, there was the war of words between Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on the 2016 campaign trail. Then, there was the Russian hack-and-dump of Democratic National Committee emails and the massive influence campaign aimed at boosting Trump’s chances of victory over Clinton, managed by Russia’s Internet Research Agency troll farm. That led to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in U.S. electoral politics. Then, soon after Mueller launched his inquiry, Russian bots and trolls went to work again, this time promoting an institution-destroying disinformation campaign now known as the QAnon conspiracy theory.
Less than a year after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was voted into office, his elevation to power—and related conversations with Trump—triggered a presidential impeachment crisis in Washington. And then, only a little more than a year after that, an angry pro-Trump mob mounted a violent putsch at the U.S. Capitol with the aim of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election—an event that subsequently triggered a second impeachment proceeding against the outgoing president. Anyone who tells you that foreign policy does not matter when it comes to U.S. politics is trying to sell you snake oil not by the glass, but by the barrel.
Yes, Americans are worried about inflation and the potential effect that sanctions on Russia could have at the fuel pump and for their energy bills. It is also true that many simply will never connect the dots between how Putin’s irredentist grab for Ukraine will affect European economies, how that in turn will affect U.S. trade with Europe—one of its most critical partners—and how that will influence the price of consumer goods. And they’re not wrong: There will be short-term pain for most consumers in the U.S. and Europe. But there could also be longer-term damage to trans-Atlantic trade and the global economy if Putin succeeds in occupying Ukraine even for a brief period.
Polls will likely continue to reflect deep skepticism among Americans for any military engagement in Ukraine. Isolationism is, after all, an American tradition. But the United States’ late entries into World War I and World War II also hold important lessons for pundits and pollsters across the political spectrum. Forget about a “new Cold War.” If, as some experts believe is possible, the fighting in Ukraine morphs into a regional war, it could draw in Poland or the Baltic states, meaning that NATO and therefore the United States will be dragged into the conflict. At that point, it won’t matter much what Americans think about how the White House is doing, because the world we live in will be unrecognizable, and peace in Europe irretrievable for years to come.
Candace Rondeaux is a senior fellow and professor of practice at the Center on the Future of War, a joint initiative of New America and Arizona State University. Her WPR column appears every other Friday.
