Nov 15, 2025; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) plays a run pass option against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs during the first half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images Before anyone gets angry, I’m perfectly fine with teams throwing cupcakes on their schedule. I just don’t want to see those cupcakes when every other power conference is deep in the heart of their league slates. And honestly, the SEC better put up a better fight against the Big Ten this bowl season — if they struggle again, the whole “SEC gauntlet” narrative is really going to start losing its luster.
Rant aside, let’s get to the picks for the very few ranked games we have this week.
#22 Missouri vs. #8 Oklahoma (-7.5) — Total: 42.5
There’s been no team I’ve believed in more this season than Missouri. They’ve been so close to a season-defining upset, and this feels like the perfect time to finally get one. Oklahoma is riding sky-high after a massive win in Tuscaloosa last week, and that sets up an enormous letdown spot here.
Oklahoma’s defense is obviously elite, but my biggest takeaway from last week was Alabama constantly shooting itself in the foot. If Beau Pribula can simply play a clean game, Mizzou can lean on Ahmad Hardy in the run game, go into Norman, and pull off the upset.
I love Missouri and the over in this spot.
Picks: Missouri (+7.5) and Over 42.5
#15 USC vs. #7 Oregon (-10.5) — Total: 59.5
In recent weeks I’ve identified trap lines and still fallen for them. Not doing that this time. Even though USC is catching a ton of points, and even though the total feels high for an Oregon offense that hasn’t always been consistent, I’m going to use my gambling brain and not overthink it.
Dante Moore had his best performance of the year last week against a solid Minnesota team. If he can carry that momentum over, I think Oregon can outpace USC in a shootout.
Pick: Oregon (-10.5)
Lean: Over 59.5
#11 BYU (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati — Total: 54.5
This is one you simply don’t overthink.
Despite a decent record, Cincinnati is not very good. They’ve padded their wins against the bottom tier of the Big 12 and been blown out whenever they face anyone competent.
BYU was wildly disrespected last week, favored by just 2.5 against a TCU team they crushed at home. TCU is still better than Cincinnati — so why wouldn’t BYU roll again here? They’ve picked up a few solid road wins already, and this should be another.
Take BYU, and maybe even look at an alternate spread.
Pick: BYU (-2.5)
2025 Record: 36–36
