Watch now: 10 storylines to watch in Illinois government, politics in 2022 | Govt-and-politics

Illinois lawmakers just closed the book on a remarkably active year of legislating. Nearly 700 bills were signed into law, including heavy lift items like criminal justice reform and landmark climate legislation.

So what does this year hold in state government and politics?

No one can predict the future. But if what’s past is prologue, Illinoisans can expect less policymaking and more politicking in 2022, a year where every state legislator, members of Congress and major figures like Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth will face voters.

With that, here are 10 topics to watch in Illinois government and politics in 2022:

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is running for reelection. And though he, with the help of supermajority Democrats in the General Assembly, has largely steamrolled Republican legislative opposition over the past three years, major GOP players say the party will put up a major fight in 2022.

Billionaire Ken Griffin, one of the few Illinois residents with a larger bank account than Pritzker’s, has pledged to fund a slate of statewide Republican candidates to challenge the governor and other statewide elected Democrats.

GOP sources say Griffin could spend between $200 million and $300 million on the effort. Forces behind the effort are likely to roll out a slate of candidates in the coming weeks.

Pritzker, who spent $172 million in his successful 2018 campaign against Gov. Bruce Rauner, has essentially unlimited resources. He will also likely have support from rank-and-file Democrats for delivering on key priorities like increasing the minimum wage, legalizing recreational marijuana and supporting major climate legislation.

However, Republicans believe a favorable national climate mixed with exhaustion over lifestyle changes brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns over a rise in violent crime in cities across the state and an unemployment rate higher than the country as a whole will put Illinois in play — if the GOP can find and finance the right candidate.

At the very least, Republicans think a statewide slate that can keep the race close can help their legislative candidates win in the moderate Chicago suburbs and perhaps challenge Democratic supermajorities in the legislature.

No electoral outcome is certain. But, assuming Griffin follows through, it is a solid bet that the 2022 governor’s race will be the most expensive race in state history, easily exceeding the 2018 race. So get ready for lots of television advertisements.

With the retirement of Democrat Jesse White, the Illinois Secretary of State’s race is open for the first time in 24 years.

Four Democrats have declared their candidacies for the office: former state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias; Chicago City Clerk Anna Valencia; Chicago Ald. Pat Dowell and Chicago Ald. David Moore. State Rep. Dan Brady, a Bloomington Republican, has also announced a bid.

White’s lengthy tenure was unprecedented. Historically, the office has been a stepping stone position for candidates seeking higher office, with two former officeholders, Republicans Jim Edgar and George Ryan, going on to become governor. Another, Democrat Alan Dixon, went on to serve two terms in the U.S. Senate.

It is the most prominent statewide office outside the governor’s office, controlling more than 4,000 jobs and touching the lives of nearly every Illinois resident by issuing driver’s licenses and registering motor vehicles.

In short, it is a great position for an ambitious politician to hold.

Giannoulias, who served one term as state treasurer before an unsuccessful run for U.S. Senate in 2010, has emerged as the clear frontrunner, lining up support from major labor unions and elected officials while raising nearly $3.5 million.

But, in a good Republican year, the party sees an opportunity to win the open seat.

Springfield Democrats approved and Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a new congressional map into law last fall. Some of the consequences of the decisions made will play out in the first half of 2022.

Namely, there are likely to be two inter-party congressional primaries.

One will feature Rep. Sean Casten, D-Downers Grove, and Rep. Marie Newman, D-LaGrange. The district includes portions of suburban DuPage County and southwestern Cook County.

So why are two Democrats facing off when the party drew the map?

Well, the 2020 U.S. Census, which showed the state losing population overall, continued to register gains in the state’s Hispanic population. So lawmakers drew a second district where the group is a significant plurality. One incumbent had to be bounced as a result.

Downstate, there will likely be a Republican vs. Republican primary. Rep. Mary Miller, R-Oakland, a member of the arch-conservative House Freedom Caucus, has told reporters she plans to run for reelection but hasn’t said where.

If she does, it would have to be against either Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, or Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, both entrenched incumbents.

Either way, it would be an ugly primary battle that could potentially involve former President Donald Trump.

Illinois state government was allocated more than $8.1 billion in federal COVID-19 stimulus funds under the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2021.

Last year, lawmakers agreed to spend about $2.8 billion of the funds, including about $1 billion towards capital projects and $573.7 million towards grants and other relief for small businesses.

How to spend the remaining $5 billion will be a major question for lawmakers this coming year.

The state has until 2024 to disperse the funds, so it can continue to spread it out over multiple years. But, there will be pressure from lawmakers and interest groups to fund key initiatives.

Expect there to be some pressure, especially from Republicans, to use at least some of the funds to pay down the nearly $4.5 billion the state owes to the federal unemployment trust fund. The state utilized that fund to pay enhanced unemployment benefits during the pandemic.

How and what lawmakers decided to spend the money may depend on the state’s budget situation, which improved significantly last year due to the bounce back of the economy.

In 2022, Illinois voters will be asked whether or not workers have the fundamental right to unionize and collectively bargain in order to negotiate wages, hours, and working conditions.

The binding ballot initiative, approved by a bipartisan group of lawmakers during the last legislative session, would prevent state lawmakers from making Illinois a “right-to-work” state.

Every state bordering Illinois besides Missouri has a right-to-work law on the books, so it presents an opportunity for Illinois to further contrast itself with its neighbors.

If approved, it would be a major victory for organized labor, which has established itself among the most powerful collective interests in Springfield just a few short years after being under threat by the notoriously anti-union Gov. Bruce Rauner.

Around this time last year, House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, suspended his campaign for another term as speaker when it became clear he did not have the votes to win.

Madigan, who had survived several controversies over the years, was finally beat as a corruption probe that’s ensnared some of his closest confidants drew closer and closer.

In 2020, federal prosecutors in Chicago charged utility giant Commonwealth Edison with bribery. They alleged that the utility awarded jobs and contracts to associates of a top state official — identified as Madigan — “with intent to influence and reward” the official.

The utility agreed to pay a $200 million fine.

Later that year, longtime lobbyist and Madigan consigliere Mike McClain, along with two former ComEd executives and another lobbyist, was charged in the scheme.

The case is scheduled to go to trial later this year, potentially presenting a headache to Democrats running for reelection. Madigan has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

But could the former speaker eventually be charged? He appears to be the target of federal prosecutors.

But Madigan was always careful, not using email and not owning his own cell phone, for instance. This year, we may find out if the man known as the Velvet Hammer slipped up.

The governor’s race will get most of the headlines, but some Illinois political insiders say there are a pair of even more consequential races on the same ballot: the open seats that will determine control of the seven-person Illinois Supreme Court.

The court is currently controlled 4-3 by Democrats, but Justice Thomas Kilbride, a Democrat, lost his retention election in 2020, setting up an open race in 2022. Combined with the retirement of Justice Robert Thomas, a Republican, earlier that year, that leaves two open seats.

Adding to that, Springfield Democrats redistricted the state’s judicial districts for the first time since the 1960s (a Republican-led effort in the 1990s was not successful) in an effort to maintain their hold on the court.

The new map, which bases those two districts in the Democratic-trending Chicago suburbs, gives the party a better opportunity to do so than the old map. President Joe Biden carried each district relatively comfortably, but Pritzker only won them by a few thousand votes.

Here’s the political reality: it’s far more likely that Republicans take control of the Illinois Supreme Court than they win back the Illinois Governor’s Mansion. These races will probably not reach the level of expense that the governor’s race will, but they will be costly.

State judicial races may go over the head of average voters, but there’s a lot at stake for major interest groups such as the business lobby, organized labor and trial lawyers. They will pour millions into these races.

Justice Rita Garmon, a Republican, and Justice Mary Jane Theis, a Democrat, are up for retention in seats considered safe for their respective parties.

When 2021 started, Pritzker presented lawmakers with a “doomsday” budget that anticipated significant revenue declines due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Luckily for policymakers, the economic boom post-shutdown was stronger than expected. State tax revenue — which mostly comes from sales and income — beat even the rosiest of expectations.

This, mixed with COVID-19 stimulus funds, allowed the state to pass a budget that’s balanced (at least on paper) while still funding key initiatives, such as the additional $350 million for K-12 education under the evidence-based funding formula.

Whether this revenue trend continues into 2022 is a question that will significantly impact what the state’s budget looks like. Growth is a great drug to take advantage of when drawing up a spending plan.

But the state’s structural deficit, driven largely by growing pension obligations, remains the elephant in the room.

After a remarkably active year of legislating that stretched into the summer months, House Speaker Chris Welch and Senate President Don Harmon have made clear they want an abbreviated legislative session in 2022.

The pair have targeted April 8 as adjournment day, which is seven-and-a-half weeks earlier than typical. Many are skeptical. Lawmakers are notoriously bad at meeting hard deadlines let alone an artificial one.

But the goal makes sense. For one it’s an election year. Such years are normally heavy on politics and light on policy.

And another factor to weigh is the June 28 primary date, which is more than three months later than usual due to pandemic-induced delays in the delivery of 2020 U.S. Census data, which pushed back redistricting. The last place lawmakers want to be weeks ahead of an election is Springfield.

Of course, they will pass a budget. But beyond that, expect some messaging bills, the occasional trailer bill to clean up legislation passed in 2021 and get ready for some political theater.

U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Channahon, announced in November his retirement from the House, which became all-but-certain after Springfield Democrats carved up his district in the once-a-decade redistricting process.

But Kinzinger, one of the most prominent GOP critics of former President Donald Trump, has been somewhat coy on his future plans. He’s hinted at a possible run for governor against Pritzker or U.S. Senate against incumbent Tammy Duckworth. He may also do more work with his political action committee “Country First.”

Kinzinger has stated his belief that he’s the only candidate who can defeat Pritzker — if he can win a GOP primary, that is. But a run for statewide office would undoubtedly take him out of the national spotlight, which he has enjoyed for the better part of a year.

Either way, a decision will likely come in January, when petitions start getting passed for the June primary election.