Bullet point summary by AI
- The Houston Astros are likely to trade a key shortstop before the July deadline as their playoff hopes dim.
- Atlanta needs offensive stability and a reliable glove to protect their slim NL East lead this season.
- Adding one established player could shift the balance of power in the NL, especially with division rivals looming large.
The last time we saw the Houston Astros properly sell at the trade deadline, they’d never played an American League postseason game.
We promise that’s not a typo. Younger fans might not know that the Astros only moved to the AL West in 2013, two years before a Wild Card berth and an ALDS appearance. Outside of the 2020 COVID season, the Astros haven’t finished with a losing record since 2014. But Houston’s playoff hopes this year are fading fast, and the Astros have a legitimate chance to enter July under .500.
Luckily for Jeremy Peña, he might not need to stick around much longer. The star shorstop, who turns 29 in September, has two years left of team control and is widely expected to be available at the trade deadline.
Enter the Atlanta Braves, who need to be aggressive and take Peña off the Astros’ hands.
A Braves-Astros trade that sends Jeremy Peña to Atlanta
The good news for all sides is that Peña has stayed healthy since returning from his hamstring injury last month. He’s the same player he’s always been: a steady everyday shortstop who gets on base and is good for the occasional home run.
Atlanta needs stability, even more so given Ronald Acuña Jr.’s own hamstring injuries. Braves shortstop Ha-Seong Kim has been dreadful this season, and the Dodgers still lurk in the NL West. Now is the time for a splash move, and Peña fits the bill.
Why the Braves accept the deal
For as great as Acuña is, he’s also a liability to stay healthy. It’d be hard to fault anyone inside the Braves’ building for doubting they can depend on him this October.
Any discussions regarding the Braves’ postseason hopes must also involve the Phillies. National League East fans, especially those in Philadelphia, know all about the dreaded September collapse. The Braves would be the No. 2 seed if the postseason began tomorrow. Unsurprisingly, Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers hold the NL’s top seed and home-field advantage.
On his own, Peña isn’t enough to elevate the Braves over the Dodgers. But put him in the same lineup as Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies, and we’re having a different conversation. That’s not even factoring in a healthy Acuña, whose return timetable is unknown. We’ll also never bet against Austin Riley, even amid a career-worst season.
Why the Astros accept the deal
It feels like this season marks the end of an era, whether Houston wants to admit it or not. The Astros simply don’t have the requisite pitching — or the requisite health — to make a serious run at a pennant, and with an increasingly bloated cap sheet, it’s time to take some medicine and try to reset moving forward.
Moving Peña is a big step in that direction. He only has one more year of team control remaining, and the Astros almost certainly can’t afford to meet Scott Boras’ asking price for an extension. Moving on now means selling when his value is highest (when he has two postseason runs remaining rather than just one), and also allows Houston to restock a farm system that might be the thinnest in baseball.
Murphy is the sort of legit pitching prospect this organization could desperately use, and he’s been performing much better at Triple-A of late — especially considering that this is his first full season back on the mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery. When he’s right, he’s got one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the Minors, with the hope of developing his changeup more as he gets healthy. There’s real mid-rotation upside here, and he’s close to MLB-ready.
Southisene isn’t as explosive an athlete as Peña, but he could be his long-term replacement in time, a slick defender at short who has done a lot to assuage hit-tool concerns with a solid performance in A-ball this season. That’s two real building blocks moving forward for a player who doesn’t factor into Houston’s future plans.
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