The numbers behind the Cubs’ 10-game losing streak are worse than fans realize

The Chicago Cubs have held the lead for two of their last 90 innings. Let that sink in.

Chicago entered May looking like the best team in the NL. They reeled off a 10-game winning streak in late April and immediately followed a brief stumble with a second 10-game streak. By May 8, they were running away with the division. Then the floor opened up. Since May 15, the Cubs have been outscored 65-25, while their rotation posted an 8.52 ERA. Ian Happ is producing at roughly the level of a pitcher batting ninth, and their offense has completely disappeared against a relatively underwhelming schedule.

Unfortunately for Cubs fans, the data does not let the Cubs off with a bad luck story. Here’s what’s gone wrong.

The Cubs’ rotation has completely collapsed

• Key point: 8.52 rotation ERA during the losing streak

The Cubs’ rotation posted a combined 8.52 ERA over this 10-game losing streak. For context: a 4.50 ERA is considered below average. Eight-fifty-two is something else entirely.

Shota Imanaga, who entered the season as the Cubs’ best starter, posted a 13.06 ERA in his two collapse-period starts and a -9.94 RE24, meaning his outings directly cost the team nearly 10 runs of expected value compared to an average pitcher in the same situation. Jameson Taillon was at 11.17 ERA, -6.57 RE24. Jordan Wicks made one start and gave up eight runs in four-plus innings for a 16.62 ERA.

Three of the ten starts produced a game score below 40, meaning the starter put the team in an early deficit before the lineup ever came to bat. The Cubs were falling behind in the first inning repeatedly, and when you are scoring 2.5 runs per game, there is no digging out.

For what it’s worth, Ben Brown has been the exception. He threw 11 innings across two starts, posted a 3.27 ERA, and generated a positive RE24. The Cubs went 0-2 in those games anyway, because the offense averaged 1.5 runs per game when he pitched.

The middle of the lineup stopped producing

• Key point: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson combined for sub-.500 OPS marks

The team’s OPS during the 10-game collapse is listed at .733. That sounds below average but functional. What that number hides is distribution: two players are propping up that line while everyone else is in freefall.

Michael Busch has been the best offensive player in the National League over the past 10 days. His .938 OPS and 163 wRC+ during the collapse are not a typo. Three home runs, nine walks in 50 plate appearances. He’s the only consistent threat in the lineup. But the Cubs are 0-11 in games he has played during the streak, and that tells you how bad everything else has been.

Then there’s the other side of the ledger: Ian Happ has struck out 17 times in 39 plate appearances, a 43.6 percent strikeout rate. He is hitting .114 with a .377 OPS and a 2.9 wRC+. League average is 100. At 2.9, Happ is producing at roughly the level of a pitcher batting ninth! His xwOBA during the collapse is .187, meaning the underlying contact quality is as bad as the results.

Seiya Suzuki is at a .394 OPS and 15.3 wRC+ over the 10 games. Dansby Swanson has an .487 OPS and 36.7 wRC+. Both have been liabilities at premium spots in the lineup. When your starting second baseman, right fielder and shortstop are collectively producing below replacement level, you score 2.5 runs per game regardless of what the pitcher gives you.

The Cubs have spent almost the entire streak trailing

• Key point: Chicago has held a lead for only two of its last 90 innings

The Cubs scored zero runs in four of the 10 games. One run in two others. Six of 10 games at one run or fewer. In the two games where they scored five or more, they still gave up eight or nine on the other side.

The weighted team wRC+ during their collapse is 81. League average is 100. Chicago, at its collective best over a 10-game sample that included series against the White Sox, Brewers, Astros and Pirates, has been a below-average offensive team. Jacob deGrom, Kyle Harrison and Shota Imanaga all started against them during the streak. But so did Davis Martin and Peter Lambert. The Cubs managed two runs and five runs against those two.

The bullpen has not been the problem

• Key point: Multiple relievers posted positive RE24 marks during the streak

This is the part of the collapse that gets buried. While the rotation imploded and the offense went quiet, the Cubs bullpen was technically doing its job. Jacob Webb has a 0.00 ERA and a +2.31 RE24 during the streak. Ethan Roberts has a 1.35 ERA and a +2.19 RE24. Trent Thornton has been a positive contributor. Ty Blach threw three clean innings.

Ryan Rolison has been rough, posting a -1.46 RE24 in six appearances. Phil Maton has been squeezed. But the aggregate picture shows a bullpen that did more than enough to give this team chances. The rotation and the bottom of the lineup threw those chances away.

A 10-game losing streak with a functioning bullpen and one of the league’s best offensive performances from your first baseman tells you the problem is specific, not systemic. This is not a broken team from top to bottom. It is a team where the starting staff fell apart at the same time three lineup regulars went cold, and those two things converged in the same 10 days.

What has to change for the Cubs to recover

• Key point: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson all need to get back to near league-average production after posting xwOBAs below .201.

The Cubs are 29-26 and sitting 4.5 games out. The division lead is not gone. What the data says is that this roster cannot survive another 10-day stretch where Imanaga and Taillon are pitching at a 12-ERA clip.

The Happ situation is the most acute. At a 43.6 percent strikeout rate with a sub-.200 xwOBA, this is not a slump with good underlying contact quality pointing toward a correction. The batted ball data shows a hitter who is not squaring the ball up. Until that changes, Chicago is carrying a significant liability in a spot that should be producing.

Suzuki’s xwOBA is .189 during the collapse. Swanson’s is .201. League average xwOBA sits around .315. Three of the Cubs’ eight everyday lineup spots are so far below replacement that Busch’s excellence barely shows up in the run total.

Two 10-game winning streaks. One 10-game losing streak. Chicago built a lead and gave it all back in less than two weeks. The numbers say two things are true though: This team is better than its current record and the team needs sustained improvement from Imanaga, Taillon, Happ and Suzuki before it starts climbing back.

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