Bullet point summary by AI
- The Kentucky Derby’s starting gate has been in use since 1930, giving nearly a century of data on post positions at Churchill Downs.
- Middle positions seven through 10 have historically produced the most success, while extreme outside posts face significant challenges.
- One post has never produced a winner and hasn’t seen a runner-up or top-five finisher in decades, setting up a dramatic test for this year’s contenders.
If you haven’t filled out your ticket for this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday evening, you may want to read this first. Because while post position is a factor in every horse race, at Churchill Downs it can be the difference between cashing and going home a loser. And that’s not just superstition talking — we’ve got the data to prove it.
There are a few post positions that better set you up for success. But there’s one particular spot you don’t want if you want to have any chance to win the Run for the Roses, at least if history is any guide.
What are the best and worst post positions for the Kentucky Derby?
Churchill Downs first introduced a starting gate back in 1930, meaning we’ve got nearly a full century of data to draw from. Over that time, the most success has come towards the middle, particularly spots seven through 10.
|
Post No. |
Total wins |
Win rate |
Most recent winner |
|---|---|---|---|
|
5 |
10 |
10.4% |
Always Dreaming (2017) |
|
8 |
9 |
9.5% |
Mage (2023) |
|
10 |
9 |
10.2% |
Giacomo (2005) |
|
7 |
8 |
8.4% |
Mandaloun (2021) |
Which makes sense, given how unusually large the Kentucky Derby field is, how chaotic the start is and how easy it can be to get caught against the rail — or stuck too far out wide. Speaking of which: In Derby history, post 17 is the only one that’s yet to see a single winner.
|
Post No. |
Total wins |
Win rate |
Most recent winner |
|---|---|---|---|
|
17 |
0 |
0% |
Always Dreaming (2017) |
|
6 |
2 |
2.1% |
Sea Hero (1993) |
|
11 |
2 |
2.4% |
Winning Colors (1988) |
|
12 |
3 |
3.7% |
Canonero II (1971) |
Heck, 17 hasn’t even seen a runner-up finish since way back in 1988. The last time a horse went from 17 to even finish in the top five was Don’t Get Mad in 2005, who finished fourth. That’s a lot of history to overcome; 96 years of racing doesn’t lie. But who got stuck in that unlucky spot this year, and what sort of chance do they have to buck the trend?
Will the curse of post 17 come to an end this year?
Further Ado will be starting from post 17, but is currently considered a legitimate contender regardless. They’re currently listed at 6-1 after a strong showing at the Blue Grass Stakes.
Do they have what it takes to break the post 17 curse? That remains to be seen: Starting that far outside demands a lot of energy being spent early in order to avoid getting left behind by the time the first turn comes around. Even if you’re able to start fast, you run the risk of burning out too early and not having enough gas left in the tank down the stretch. While there have been other out-wide winners — nine of the last 15 have come from post 13 or wider — it does put you at a clear disadvantage, especially at the extremes.
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