The MLB season being two months deep means that we’ve played enough games to ditch the “it’s early” excuse for the struggling teams. But it also means that we haven’t played enough games to actually determine which would-be contenders are flukes. I mean, just last season the Mets were the best team in the Majors in mid-June only to miss the playoffs entirely.
Who will be this year’s Mets? It feels like these teams, either in or contending for playoff spots, are destined to fall off sooner rather than later.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
I hate to do this, because I think the Tampa Bay Rays are really fun, but ultimately it’s really hard to be 36-21 with just a +16 run differential. The Rays have the best record in the AL largely because they’ve gone 9-2 in one-run games and 21-7 at home. While their home-field advantage won’t be going away, their close-game luck is bound to regress to the mean — and when that happens, their lack of pop will become a source of frustration.
The Rays, despite rostering Junior Caminero, have hit just 50 home runs this season, the fourth-fewest in the sport. Only three of their players have hit more than three homers. They’ve got tons of team speed and don’t strike out, but it’s really hard to string enough hits together to score runs without power consistently. In fact, the Rays aren’t even top 10 in runs scored (or team ERA).
The Rays are a good team, and perhaps most importantly a fun team. But are they really the best team in the AL when a team in their own division has a run differential 80 runs better? It’s hard to make that argument.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have come roaring back, bouncing back from 10 games under .500 when Rob Thomson was fired to one game over after a few weeks of Don Mattingly at the helm. They’re just 1.5 games back of a playoff spot, and seem to have a ton of momentum. While I want to say Mattingly has been the difference, the real difference has been their pitching: The Phillies had a 5.13 staff ERA under Thomson this season, good for the third-worst mark in the sport; since firing Thomson, their 3.10 staff ERA is the third-best. Their rotation has been even better, as its 2.84 ERA would indicate.
Cristopher Sanchez has not allowed a run since April, Zack Wheeler has looked like his usual self and even with some unluckiness coming his way, Jesus Luzardo is very, very good. The problem, though, is that the Phillies, even under Mattingly, still cannot hit with any sort of consistency. They’ve scored four runs or fewer in each of their last 11 games. They’ve found ways to win six of those games because of their pitching, but does anyone think the Phillies can contend with this offense?
Outside of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh, who do you trust? Trea Turner is having a major down year, Alec Bohm has taken a step back and Adolis Garcia hasn’t done much of anything. Until the Phillies add a big bat or two (or three), I don’t know how anyone can expect them to do anything but maybe lose in the Wild Card Round — if they can get that far.
3. Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers might be 29-31, but they’d be tied for the third Wild Card spot if the regular season ended today. Whether you want to hear it or not, a team tied for the third Wild Card spot, as bad as they might be, is by definition in contention. With that being said, unlike the team they’re tied with, the Toronto Blue Jays, I’m not sure how anyone can think the Rangers can even make the playoffs — let alone do anything memorable in October.
The strength of this Rangers team was supposed to be its pitching, and while Texas has done a solid job preventing runs, the trio of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and MacKenzie Gore has not quite lived up to expectations. And most alarmingly, the Rangers cannot score: They’re just 24th in the Majors in runs and 23rd in OPS, even with veterans like Joc Pederson and Jake Burger bouncing back from down seasons.
Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford being out hasn’t helped, but it’s not like either one of those guys were playing particularly well before landing on the IL. Brandon Nimmo got off to a blistering start but he’s cooled down significantly. Evan Carter hasn’t hit a lick. You know the offense is bad when the Rangers have the sixth-best rotation ERA but are only +8 in the run differential department. This is an old, expensive, uninspiring baseball team.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals are one of MLB’s most surprising teams to this point, but unfortunately, it doesn’t feel likely to last. Not only is their roster not built to compete right now, but their run differential suggests they shouldn’t be this good.
The Cardinals’ -11 run differential is worse than two sub-.500 teams and only three runs better than the 26-34 Mets. St. Louis deserves credit for going 11-6 in one-run games, and they’ve admittedly played well against quality competition, but I’m not sure the Cardinals are truly elite at anything.
Their 31-27 record would have them in control of the third Wild Card spot if the season ended today, which is better than expected. But with a young, unproven roster and lackluster peripherals, I’m not sure how much longer this lasts.
1. San Diego Padres
At 32-26, the San Diego Padres are in second place in the NL West and would claim the first Wild Card spot if the season ended today. With that being said, their -6 run differential is worse than the 25-33 Boston Red Sox. It’s hard to argue the Padres are anything but fraudulent when a team as bad as the Red Sox has a better run differential than they do.
San Diego’s bullpen, led by the historically dominant Mason Miller, remains as good as just about anybody’s. But what else are the Padres good at? They’re 23rd in the Majors in rotation ERA (4.63), 29th in OPS (.656) and dead-last in runs scored (227). They’ve been good defensively, but with a rotation devoid of any depth and a lineup featuring a slew of struggling stars, I don’t see how a good bullpen and defense will get the Padres where they want to go.
The bottom line here is that the Padres need more from their biggest names. It took two months (!) for Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit his first home run of the season. Manny Machado is hitting .174. Jackson Merrill has a .617 OPS. Nick Pivetta has made just four starts; Joe Musgrove hasn’t made any. Even with their bullpen, I don’t see how the Padres can maintain this level of play without their stars doing much of anything.
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