Six races will help determine whether Democrats or Republicans are celebrating the gubernatorial results in November 2022.
In our first full-scale handicapping of the 2022 election cycle, we’re calling six races Toss-Ups. Four of the Toss-Up races are currently held by Democrats while two are held by Republicans.
The six Toss-Up races include reelection bids by four Democrats – Gov. Laura Kelly in Kansas, Gov. Tony Evers in Wisconsin, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Gov. Steve Sisolak in Nevada – plus the reelection campaign of Republican Brian Kemp in Georgia and the race to fill the open governor’s office in Arizona. With the exception of Kansas, each of these states was a closely fought battleground state in 2020.
The six Toss-Up races account for one-sixth of the 36 gubernatorial races on tap for 2022. All told, the GOP holds 20 of the 36 seats being contested, compared to 16 for the Democrats.
This report is the third of the three we’re publishing on the 2022 governors races. In one previous report, we looked at the 14 gubernatorial races we rate as Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic. In another report, we detailed the 16 seats we rate as Safe Republican, Likely Republican and Lean Republican.
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Before Election Day 2022, Republicans control 28 gubernatorial seats while Democrats hold 22.
Our analysis below is based on reporting with dozens of political observers in the states, plus national party officials and a look at historical, demographic and polling data.
In addition to rating each race below a Toss-Up, we’ve also ranked the states from most likely to vote Republican to most likely to vote Democratic within that category. In other words, the Kansas contest, at the top of the list, ranks closest to the Lean Republican category, while the Nevada race, at the bottom, ranks closest to the Lean Democratic category.
Kansas: Gov. Laura Kelly (D)
Kelly is the most endangered Democratic incumbent governor this cycle, with her race firmly in the Toss-Up category. Kelly was elected in 2018 over Kris Kobach, whose stances on immigration and voting rights proved a step too far to the right even in solidly conservative Kansas. Now she’s facing a more mainstream Republican and running in a more ominous political environment for Democrats.
With former Gov. Jeff Colyer now gone from the race, long-serving Attorney General Derek Schmidt has only token opposition in the GOP primary. Schmidt can now fundraise without worrying about having to spend on a primary battle. In early January, he received Trump’s official endorsement.
Polls have shown a close race, right around the margin of error, although Kelly’s approval ratings have recently been at or above 50%, which is pretty good for a Democrat in a state as red as Kansas. After the GOP-led legislature held a special legislative session to pass limits on coronavirus mandates, Kelly signed the bill, potentially muting one issue Republicans are hoping to use against her.
Arizona: Open seat (Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited)
Arizona, a historically Republican state that has moved toward the Democrats in recent elections, will have a closely watched gubernatorial race in 2022.
The early Democratic front-runner for governor was Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who gained national prominence for fighting off Republican allegations of voter fraud after Biden won the state in 2020. But in recent months, she has taken hits for her actions that have come under scrutiny in a racial and sexual discrimination lawsuit filed by a former state Senate staffer, Talonya Adams. Adams has won two court cases, and some Democrats have been disappointed at Hobbs’ past actions and slow response.
Two other Democrats could potentially leapfrog Hobbs into front-runner status: Marco Lopez, the former mayor of Nogales, a border town, and state Rep. Aaron Lieberman.
On the GOP side, the front-runner is Kari Lake, a former TV anchor from Phoenix. Lake has Trump’s endorsement, which will help in the primary but will likely harm her among moderate Republicans and independents in the general election. The GOP is looking to replicate the Virginia gubernatorial race victory, in which Republican Glenn Youngkin won by focusing on parents’ rights and school issues. Lake has taken it the furthest, advocating for cameras in classrooms, an idea that Ducey and several GOP gubernatorial hopefuls have opposed.
The GOP primary includes almost a dozen other Republican candidates. The most prominent are Karrin Taylor Robson, scion of an Arizona political dynasty, and former Rep. Matt Salmon. Salmon is considered the most likely to become the front-runner if Lake stumbles. (State Treasurer Kimberly Yee quit the race in January to run for reelection to her current position.)
The political environment should help the GOP in 2022, but choosing a strongly Trump-aligned candidate would pose a risk in the general election.
Wisconsin: Gov. Tony Evers (D)
As governor, Evers has mostly played defense against the GOP’s majorities in Wisconsin’s legislature, and he’s faced a barrage of lawsuits from Republican legislators and conservative groups over stay-at-home orders, mask mandates, school policy and election matters.
The incumbent has escaped a significant primary challenge. In the general election, he seems most likely to face former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. A wild card would involve the entry into the primary by Kevin Nicholson, a Marine who’s close to the wealthy, conservative Uihlein family. Former U.S. Rep. Sean Duffy has been wooed by Trump to enter the race, but he decided against running.
The trial of Kyle Rittenhouse – who was acquitted of charges stemming from his shooting of three men during unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin – makes it likely that race, policing and firearms will remain issues in the governor’s race. These could energize the GOP base in the state, although Democrats are relieved that there was no significant unrest following the Rittenhouse acquittal. That’s in contrast to the riots that followed the 2020 police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man.
As is so often the case in narrowly divided Wisconsin, this contest is shaping up to be a competitive one.
Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R)
Each of the six Toss-Up races cited here will attract national attention, but Georgia’s stands above the rest as the nation’s marquee governor’s race for 2022.
Kemp, who won his first term in 2018 as a staunch conservative and has governed that way during his tenure, nonetheless drew the ire of Trump for his certification of Biden’s narrow underdog 2020 win in Georgia. While a Trump ally, former state Rep. Vernon Jones, was already challenging Kemp in the primary, the former president managed to entice a bigger name into the race: former Sen. David Perdue. Kemp has some advantages, including support from the business community and some establishment Republicans, but Trump’s influence on the rank-and-file primary electorate will be undeniable. Observers are expecting an expensive, scorched-earth primary. Right now, both Kemp and Perdue have plausible paths to victory. (If neither manages to win a majority, a runoff would ensue, draining the candidates’ war chests even further.)
Meanwhile, Democrats have been energized by the official entry into the race of Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost to Kemp in 2018. Since her loss, Abrams has only redoubled her efforts to register voters. Republicans acknowledge the scale of her grassroots accomplishments but add that Abrams’ high profile should energize Republicans to vote against her. They are hoping Abrams will be too liberal for the suburban voters who have swung to the Democrats in Georgia in 2018 and 2020. And this, Republicans say, could neutralize the risks of depressed energy among pro-Trump voters if Kemp, rather than Perdue, wins the nomination.
Without a significant primary, Abrams can shepherd her resources for the general election. But regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, Abrams will be in for a tough fight in November.
Michigan: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D)
Whitmer governs a battleground state where her handling of the pandemic has put her on the hot seat, not just with Republicans but also with independents and some Democrats. The front-runner in the large GOP field is James Craig, a retired Detroit police chief. While Craig has been competitive with Whitmer in most polls, he’s also experienced some turbulence on the campaign trail and within his staff. Another Republican candidate, auto dealer Kevin Rinke, has pledged to spend $10 million from his own pocket on the race. A wild card could be a Trump endorsement of a lesser-known candidate, potentially propelling them to the nomination but also boosting Whitmer’s chances of surviving. For now, we’re keeping this race at Toss-Up, but continued uncertainty on the GOP side could provoke a shift to Lean Democratic.
Nevada: Gov. Steve Sisolak (D)
Sisolak has not attracted notable primary opposition, but in a state that Biden only carried by a little more than 2 percentage points, Sisolak faces discontent over the pandemic. Nevada has had a mask mandate in place since the summer, and the longer the state has to grapple with coronavirus mitigation, the greater the drag on his reelection chances.
The two GOP primary candidates considered to be in the top tier are Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo and former Sen. Dean Heller. Observers believe that Lombardo, a relative moderate, would fare best in the general election. Democrats have been focusing their attacks on him. But a half-dozen other candidates are in the GOP primary, with varying degrees of alignment with Trump. They include former Democratic North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, Las Vegas Councilwoman Michele Fiore, attorney Joey Gilbert and self-funding venture capitalist Guy Nohra.
The size of the GOP primary field may give some of the lesser-known candidates an outside shot at winning the nomination, especially if one of them earns Trump’s endorsement. Sisolak’s likelihood of winning a new term will depend significantly on who wins the GOP primary.
