FanGraphs gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 99.6 percent chance to make it to the postseason. While that might sound insane based on a three-ish-week sample, this makes sense for a variety of reasons. The Dodgers are an MLB-best 13-4 on the year, they have one of the most talented rosters of all time, and they’re coming off back-to-back World Series titles. If we’re being honest, it’d be shocking if the Dodgers weren’t the first team to clinch a postseason berth, let alone miss the postseason outright.
The Dodgers prediction makes sense, but with such a small sample of games that have been played, it only makes sense that FanGraphs would be off when evaluating some other teams. With that in mind, let’s go over some teams whose postseason odds are too high, and others who have a better chance to get to October than they’re given credit for.
MLB playoff odds: Dodgers lead way, Rockies have no shot
| Team | Postseason Odds | Current Record |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 80.1% | 9-8 |
| Seattle Mariners | 72.9% | 8-10 |
| Detroit Tigers | 58.5% | 8-9 |
| Texas Rangers | 58.1% | 9-8 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 50.4% | 9-8 |
| Minnesota Twins | 47.1% | 11-8 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 40.5% | 7-9 |
| Boston Red Sox | 36.5% | 7-11 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 35.4% | 9-7 |
| Kansas City Royals | 34.7% | 7-10 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 31.6% | 10-8 |
| Athletics | 23.7% | 9-8 |
| Houston Astros | 23.2% | 7-11 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 7.1% | 9-9 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0.3% | 6-11 |
I understand that New York Yankees fans have high expectations and freak out whenever any little thing goes wrong, but even at 9-8, this team is sitting in good shape. Making the postseason won’t be an issue. It never is. Whether they can do any damage in October, though, remains to be seen. On the other end of the spectrum, while Noah Schultz has all kinds of upside and Munetaka Murakami has all kinds of power, their 0.3 percent odds feel about right.
| Team | Postseason Odds | Current Record |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 99.6% | 13-4 |
| Atlanta Braves | 81.5% | 11-7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 68.5% | 8-9 |
| New York Mets | 62.5% | 7-11 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.2% | 10-7 |
| Chicago Cubs | 46.2% | 8-9 |
| San Diego Padres | 42.6% | 11-6 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 38.4% | 10-8 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 38.1% | 8-8 |
| San Francisco Giants | 21.1% | 6-11 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 20.7% | 10-7 |
| Miami Marlins | 10.0% | 9-9 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 9.6% | 9-8 |
| Washington Nationals | 1.0% | 8-9 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 6-11 |
The Dodgers lead the pack, but the Atlanta Braves have the second-highest postseason odds in the sport. This is a bit surprising, but given how well they’ve played despite a rash of injuries and early-season struggles from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this team catch fire and win the NL East if they can get healthy. On the other side of the coin, it’s definitely harsh to give the Colorado Rockies absolutely no shot to make the playoffs, but does anyone truly disagree?
Teams whose MLB playoff odds are too high
Minnesota Twins
- Postseason odds: 47.1 percent
- Why the Twins’ odds are too high: Roster isn’t talented enough
If the postseason bracket looked exactly like this when the season ends, the Minnesota Twins would be in as the American League’s third Wild Card team. No disrespect to the Twins, but does anyone really believe this team, as constructed, is going to make the playoffs?
They’ve gotten off to a hot start and deserve praise. Ryan Jeffers continues to be underrated, Joe Ryan is the truth, and Taj Bradley has really impressed. What’s most impressive is that Pablo Lopez is out for the year and guys like Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall haven’t hit much yet, and the Twins are still holding the AL’s best record. Playoffs, though? I can’t get there.
While Bradley is exciting, is he going to sustain his ace-level production? Are veterans like Josh Bell and Trevor Larnach going to continue greatly outperforming expectations? Is this Jhoan Duran-less bullpen going to continue to be dominant late in games? I mean, the Twins have 14 holds and five saves with only one blown save.
Look – the Twins orchestrated one of the largest trade deadline sell-offs in recent memory last offseason, expecting to rebuild. They made no needle-moving moves this offseason. I’d expect them to trade Ryan and/or Buxton by the trade deadline before I expect them to be in the postseason race. Them proving me wrong would be incredibly fun, though.
New York Mets
- Postseason odds: 62.5 percent
- Why the Mets’ odds are too high: Offensive concerns
The New York Mets are 7-11 on the year and are losers of seven straight, but you wouldn’t know it based on their postseason odds. They have the fourth-highest odds in the NL and the sixth-highest in all of baseball. I’m a delusional Mets fan, but even I know that these odds are ridiculous for several reasons.
First, this offense is a problem. They’ve scored one run in their last three games and 10 runs in their seven-game losing streak. I know that Juan Soto is out, and I expect guys like Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette to get going, but I don’t know if this team, as constructed, can do enough damage to score enough runs. Run prevention is improved, as David Stearns had hoped, but it’s come at the expense of their offense, which has looked lifeless for much of the year.
Second, despite their favorable odds, the Mets only have the third-best odds in their own division. Is it really more likely that the Mets will make the postseason as the third-best team in their own division than a single NL Central team?
Maybe Soto can carry the Mets to October — he nearly did so last season. The Mets are going to need MVP-level production from him to get to the postseason in 2026.
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