This year’s MLB trade deadline was wild, with proven stars like Tarik Skubal, Adley Rutschman and Luis Arraez getting dealt to contending teams. MLB fans assumed that post-deadline, the Dodgers would be unbeatable with Skubal and the Red Sox would continue their winning ways with Rutschman, but that hasn’t exactly happened. What if I told you that a New York Mets team that traded away a third of its roster has a better record since the deadline than both L.A. and Boston?
Ultimately, it’s fun to attempt to predict the future, but you never know what’s going to happen. That’s what makes baseball the best. That doesn’t mean we can’t try, though. Opta Analyst, a prediction model that takes everything into account, including strength of schedule and injuries, gives us updated playoff odds. Here’s what it thinks the standings will look like today, exactly one month post-deadline, by the end of the regular season.
Supercomputer predicts the final American League standings
The AL East has been the best division in the American League all year, and was the most active at the deadline. Sure enough, the supercomputer predicts that the three best teams in the AL by the end of the regular season will come from this division. That isn’t shocking, since the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox hold the three-best records in the AL as of this writing.
What is more surprising is just how bad the supercomputer thinks the AL West is going to finish up. I mean, we’ve been operating under the assumption that somebody was going to get hot and run away with that division, but it hasn’t happened as of this writing, and the supercomputer doesn’t believe it’s going to happen, with the Houston Astros projected to win the division with roughly 81 wins. That’s a .500 record. Yikes.
AL East
| Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 94.8 | 67.2 | 100 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 92.7 | 69.3 | 100 |
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | 86.8 | 75.2 | 96.7 |
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 80.3 | 81.7 | 26 |
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | 79.5 | 82.5 | 17.4 |
AL Central
| Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | 85.2 | 76.8 | 91.7 |
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | 82 | 80 | 51.1 |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 77.5 | 84.5 | 5.2 |
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | 75.5 | 86.5 | 0.5 |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 72.3 | 89.7 | 0 |
AL West
| Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Astros | 81.4 | 80.6 | 69.4 |
| 2 | Texas Rangers | 79.6 | 82.4 | 29.7 |
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | 77.5 | 84.5 | 12.2 |
| 4 | Athletics | 63.6 | 98.4 | 0 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | 63.2 | 98.8 | 0 |
AL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
The winners of the AL East and AL Central are all-but-guaranteed first-round byes, as again, the AL West is such a putrid division, and the Rays and White Sox are clear-cut favorites to win those divisions. The first Wild Card matchup, featuring the Yankees and Red Sox, is close to being locked in, but the other one is anything but finalized. The Astros lead the AL West, but only by 2.0 games. The Guardians hold the final Wild Card spot, but only by 1.5 games. Both of those races are still very much undecided.
Supercomputer predicts final National League standings
While a couple of close races in the AL are worth watching, the National League standings feel largely set. The Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies all have postseason odds of 98 percent or higher per the supercomputer, and the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves are all very heavy favorites to win their divisions.
The race worth watching is the one for the third Wild Card spot, mostly between the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Most would assume the Padres would be clear favorites after acquiring Robbie Ray and Casey Mize at the deadline, but the supercomputer has other ideas.
NL East
| Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | 94.6 | 67.4 | 100 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 90.3 | 71.7 | 98.2 |
| 3 | Miami Marlins | 81.6 | 80.4 | 10.3 |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 77 | 85 | 0 |
| 5 | New York Mets | 73.4 | 88.6 | 0 |
| Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 99.6 | 62.4 | 100 |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 89.7 | 72.3 | 98.6 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 80.9 | 81.1 | 2.9 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 79.4 | 82.6 | 1.3 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 75.7 | 86.3 | 0 |
NL West
| Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 95.3 | 66.7 | 100 |
| 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 84.8 | 77.3 | 48.2 |
| 3 | San Diego Padres | 84.2 | 77.8 | 40.4 |
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | 68.2 | 93.8 | 0 |
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | 63.6 | 98.3 | 0 |
NL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs (6) Arizona Diamondbacks
- (4) Philadelphia Phillies vs (5) Chicago Cubs
By just 0.6 percent, the supercomputer believes the Diamondbacks will earn the third Wild Card spot over the Padres, giving them the chance to play the Braves in a playoff series. Speaking of Atlanta, they’re projected to win roughly one game fewer than the Dodgers in their battle for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. It should be fascinating to see if Skubal can help the Dodgers fend the Braves off and earn themselves a much-needed few days off when the postseason rolls around.
