September baseball is near. Still, at least half of the American League is within reach of a playoff spot, especially in the loaded American League Wild Card, which the Cleveland Guardians lead by two games thanks to a seven-game winning streak.
The playoff picture is finally rounding into form. All but two divisions, the AL Central and AL West, appear settled, though the Philadelphia Phillies would like a word as they push the Atlanta Braves. A month of baseball, especially when those games are filled with pressure-packed moments, is a lot longer than it seems. Let’s see what the supercomputer, powered by Opta’s projection models, thinks the final MLB standings will look like when all is said and done.
Supercomputer predicts the final American League standings
The Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox all seem like safe bets to make the postseason out of the American League East. Heck, a fourth AL East team could join the party should the Cleveland Guardians, currently on a seven-game win streak, falter down the stretch.
The AL West is wide open, with the winner likely to finish with a record under .500, furthering calls for a new playoff format that will go unanswered. The Astros just fired their GM and Joe Espada is a sitting duck, but they’re favored to make the postseason. Our money is on the Mariners amid Cal Raleigh’s resurgence, and they’re arguably the most talented team of the bunch.
AL East
| Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rays | 93.8 | 68.2 | 100 |
| 2 | Yankees | 92.2 | 69.8 | 100 |
| 3 | Red Sox | 89 | 73 | 99 |
| 4 | Orioles | 79.2 | 82.8 | 16.6 |
| 5 | Blue Jays | 79.2 | 82.8 | 16.4 |
AL Central
| Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White Sox | 85.7 | 76.3 | 91.3 |
| 2 | Guardians | 82.8 | 79.3 | 62.7 |
| 3 | Tigers | 77.1 | 84.9 | 3.8 |
| 4 | Twins | 76.9 | 85.1 | 5.4 |
| 5 | Royals | 71.8 | 90.2 | 0.2 |
AL West
| Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Astros | 79.2 | 82.8 | 40.9 |
| 2 | Rangers | 79.2 | 82.8 | 39 |
| 3 | Mariners | 78 | 84 | 24.9 |
| 4 | A’s | 65.2 | 96.8 | 0 |
| 5 | Angels | 65.1 | 96.9 | 0 |
AL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs (5) Boston Red Sox
The White Sox are at risk of falling out of the AL Central lead, just as the Detroit Tigers did a year ago, courtesy of the red-hot Cleveland Guardians. The Guards’ devil magic is at it again. On paper, the Guardians making a postseason run doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. On the field, it just…happens, with very little regard for the eye test or advanced metrics that usually define a winner.
We already talked ‘Stros, and an AL West that frankly doesn’t deserve a playoff team. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox face off this weekend as Boston is quickly narrowing the gap on New York for homefield advantage in their likely Wild Card round series.
Supercomputer predicts the final National League standings
In all likelihood, there are no major surprises coming in regards to the National League’s three division leaders. Yes, the Phillies have an outside chance to overtake the Braves, but Atlanta just won two straight against the Dodgers and appear to be back on track. The Brewers and Dodgers, thanks to their season-long dominance, are in position for first-round byes.
The real postseason race is in the NL Wild Card, where the Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks will fight for the two final spots. Philadelphia has a sound advantage for now, but San Diego and Arizona are separated by just a game and play in the same division. It’s going to get heated.
NL East
| Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braves | 94.1 | 67.9 | 99.7 |
| 2 | Phillies | 88 | 74 | 79.9 |
| 3 | Marlins | 81.7 | 80.3 | 8.5 |
| 4 | Nationals | 75.4 | 86.6 | 0 |
| 5 | Mets | 73.9 | 88.1 | 0 |
NL Central
| Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brewers | 98.7 | 63.3 | 100 |
| 2 | Cubs | 90.9 | 71.1 | 97.3 |
| 3 | Cardinals | 79.6 | 82.4 | 1.8 |
| 4 | Pirates | 78.8 | 83.2 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Reds | 74 | 88 | 0 |
NL West
| Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dodgers | 96.7 | 65.3 | 99.9 |
| 2 | Padres | 86.5 | 75.5 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Diamondbacks | 85.7 | 76.3 | 49.8 |
| 4 | Giants | 67.1 | 94.9 | 0 |
| 5 | Rockies | 64.6 | 97.4 | 0 |
NL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs (6) San Diego Padres
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs (5) Philadelphia Phillies
The NL Wild Card is wide open, meaning the Braves and Cubs must prepare for the unpredictable. Sure, our supercomputer gave this race its best go, but the Padres and Diamondbacks are separated by just one game. Eventually, Ketel Marte should return, one would hope. A Braves-Phillies series would likely favor Philadelphia, which is plenty familiar with Atlanta’s shorthanded pitching staff.
The red-hot Padres aren’t going anywhere, however, and both Atlanta and Chicago would be well-served avoiding such a matchup if possible. Meanwhile, Atlanta still has an outside chance to catch the Dodgers — and the Braves took the first two of a three-game set this week — for a first-round bye.
