Each October, millions of retirees wait for one of the most closely watched Social Security announcements of the year — news of an official cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. COLAs are designed to help Social Security benefits keep pace with inflation. Without them, recipients would be doomed to lose out on buying power through the years.
The reason Social Security COLAs are announced in October is that they’re based on third-quarter inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Since September’s CPI-W usually comes out around mid-October, an official COLA can’t be calculated beforehand.
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Last year, however, the Social Security COLA announcement didn’t go according to plan. That news was delayed after a key inflation report was released later than expected. And as this year’s announcement gets closer, Social Security recipients may be wondering: Are we due for a repeat?
Why the 2026 COLA announcement was postponed
The Social Security Administration (SSA) relies on CPI-W data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to calculate COLAs. Last year, due to the government shutdown, the BLS was unable to operate at regular capacity in October.
As a result, most CPI operations, including data collection, were delayed. September’s CPI-W was released more than a week later than scheduled, which caused the SSA to delay its COLA announcement.
Will the same thing happen again this year?
This year, the SSA is expected to make an official 2027 COLA announcement on Oct. 14. That’s the date September’s CPI-W is scheduled to be released.
At this point, there’s no reason to assume that a repeat shutdown will happen. Senate leaders recently reached an agreement to keep the government funded beyond the 2026 midterm elections and avoid a potential shutdown in October. However, it’s best to prepare for all possibilities.
What retirees should keep in mind
Although the timing of the upcoming COLA announcement is important, one thing for retirees to remember is that even if the official news is delayed, there’s a good chance the actual COLA won’t be. In other words, even if the SSA doesn’t make its announcement on time, 2027’s COLA will most likely arrive on schedule, hitting Social Security benefits in January.
Furthermore, even once an official COLA announcement comes in, Social Security recipients may not get a full sense of what it means for them financially until Medicare premium costs are unveiled for 2027.
Seniors who are enrolled in Social Security and Medicare at the same time have their Part B premiums deducted from their monthly benefits automatically. An increase in the cost of Part B could chip away at whatever COLA comes down the pike.
This isn’t unique to 2027. Part B hikes have historically eaten into COLAs, sometimes leaving Social Security recipients with a negligible net raise. The point, however, is that Social Security beneficiaries may not get the full story on their upcoming COLA right away, even if that announcement comes through on time in mid-October.
