Americans look at the uproar over classified documents two ways. One is about intent: Were papers simply misfiled or was there deeper culpability? The other is to treat any breach of the protocols for classified papers, intentional or accidental, as a serious risk to U.S. national security, regardless of who did it and what was done.
This first view concludes that political careers should not be ended and people should not be sent to prison because classified papers were stored on private premises by elected officials who once had legal access to them. The solution, they say, is to clean up the mess and tighten the rules.
If there is deeper culpability, such as selling secrets or handing over documents to foreign countries, then it becomes an entirely different matter.
The second view is tougher. It maintains that storing classified documents is a big deal, which is the basis of strict federal laws on the subject. When the nation’s highest leaders mishandle top secret information — the kind that can get people killed or start wars — it needs to be fully investigated and prosecuted, no matter who is responsible.
As former Republican congressman and one-time CIA employee Will Hurd said, “Classified information includes much more than the actual ‘secrets’ acquired. It includes how they were acquired and the process by which related analyses were made.” Every nation engaged in complicated global relations with a vast array of friends and foes has an undeniable interest in keeping top secret information under wraps.
Cases involving classified documents are complex. Politics make them impossibly thorny. That’s caused uncertainties for two U.S. presidents, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as for a former vice president, Mike Pence, who may be presidential candidates next year.
This column does not attempt to analyze the law or the intricacies of national security policy; there are other, more appropriate forums for that kind of analysis. Here, we assess public opinion and the political impact.
Biden’s mishandling of documents has taken away from Democrats an issue they could have used against Trump. It’s also causing some Democrats to quietly hope that Biden has reached a tipping point that will keep him from running again. Plenty of Democrats would rather their party nominate a younger candidate without the scars of a half-century in politics.
For Trump, and to many of his supporters, the documents case is just one more investigation, witch hunt and contrived controversy. While it could turn out to be a serious legal problem for him, encompassing a range of possible offenses, the politics are less clear now that Biden is also in hot water.
To measure the initial impact of these cases, let’s look at the polling.
Biden’s personal rating was 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable right before the first public announcement that he had stored classified documents at a private office. This poll, conducted by The Economist/YouGov, was taken at a good time for Biden; Democrats had beaten expectations in the mid-term elections, inflation was easing and Republicans were split over the House speaker’s election.
But two weeks later, after more documents were found, Biden’s favorable rating dropped five points (to 44%) and his unfavorable rating went up four points (to 53%).
Trump’s personal rating was 41% favorable and 55% unfavorable right before the FBI executed a search warrant on Mar-a-Lago. Two weeks later, his favorable rating slipped a point (to 40%) and his unfavorable rating increased two points (to 57%).
The latest CNN poll finds that 44% of voters nationwide approve of Biden’s handling of the documents issue and 56% disapprove. By party: 74% of Democrats, 38% of independents and 15% approve. Moreover, 66% of voters say Biden’s mishandling of the situation is a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” matter.
Also, from the recent CNN survey, 36% say Biden did something “illegal” and another 45% say what he did was “unethical but not illegal.” For comparison, 54% believe Trump did something “illegal” and another 31% say it was “unethical but not illegal.”
As cases related to the mishandling of classified documents unfold, one thing is sure: It’s a thicket nobody wants to be in, especially if they’re running for president next year.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster and writer based in Louisiana. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
