Predictions From Ben Zauzmer’s Math Winners

There’s no denying that Sinners already pulled off one of the most impressive feats in the history of the Oscars, earning a record-smashing 16 nominations. To be fair, the model has no historical data on what it means to appear on the ballot that many times, because no film had ever done it before.

But we do have data on what it means to receive the most nominations in a given year, and it’s more of a mixed bag than one might expect. Excluding years when multiple films tied for the most nominations, a surprising 44 percent of films to lead the nomination counts did not win best picture. The model is much more convinced by One Battle After Another’s dominating run through nearly every best picture precursor. True, it lost the Actor Award for best cast to Sinners, but that’s not nearly enough to dethrone it from first place in the model’s eyes.

In the entire history of the Oscars, 41 individuals have been nominated in at least four separate competitive categories. Of those, there are only two people who have more than six career nominations yet no trophies to show for it: Bradley Cooper (12 nominations) and Paul Thomas Anderson (14 nominations). While this won’t be Cooper’s year just yet, it sure looks like it will be Thomas’. Between his One Battle After Another nominations for this category, best picture, and best adapted screenplay, he’ll get three bites at the apple to finally win his first Oscar.

If you have a coin handy, time to flip it. That’s about as effective a method of filling out your Oscar pool for best actor as any other. The math sees just a 0.9 percent difference between the leader – Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) – and the runner-up – Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme). Not to mention, Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) is also north of 20 percent to win, so perhaps a three-sided coin is in order.

We arrive at the only “easy” pick among the four acting races. I put easy in quotes since nothing is ever 100 percent in probabilities, but this is by far the most likely. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) won a whole bunch of honors this awards season for her masterful, gut-wrenching performance, including a Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Actor Award. Last stop: the Oscars.

There are no perfect resumes here. Delroy Lindo (Sinners) missed out on most of the key nominations. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) won a bunch of early awards but then faltered down the stretch at the more predictive ceremonies. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) won a Critics Choice Award but not enough other honors to cement his lead. Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård has the misfortune of watching Sentimental Value’s shocking shutout from the Actor Award nomination lists.

That all meant that someone – anyone – still had a chance to jump out in front in the waning weeks of the race. And that’s exactly what Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) did, with eleventh-hour BAFTA and Actor Award wins. It’s hardly an airtight resume, but it’s enough for the lead.

Only once this century – and only eight times ever – has a film won best supporting actress with no other nominations: Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008), which took home a win for Penélope Cruz’s performance. That’s the uphill battle Amy Madigan (Weapons) will have to climb. And it’s not like she’s had a flawless path, either, with Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) winning the Golden Globe and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) taking the BAFTA. Her top two competitors come from films with a combined 29 nominations; her film has but one. But with no clear frontrunner, the Critics Choice and Actor Award wins are enough to give her the edge.

For all the talk of Sinners vs. One Battle After Another, the structure of the writing categories provides a brief respite, with Sinners landing under the original screenplay category and One Battle lining up in adapted. So if all goes according to chalk, both of them will get their well-deserved moment of recognition during the ceremony, and Ryan Coogler won’t go home empty-handed.

The list of films that have won screenplay honors from the Writers Guild, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and USC Scripter Award is not a long one: Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Up in the Air (2009), The Social Network (2010), and One Battle After Another. That’s a pretty compelling case to view Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel as the strong frontrunner. But don’t forget that Up in the Air suffered a memorable upset loss to Precious, reminding us that Oscar probabilities are never 100 percent.

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