In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also discuss whether there is reason to expect the current environment to hold as we get closer to Election Day and whether we should be skeptical about polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.
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