Minnesota voters can often gauge how competitive their local political races are just by looking at their daily mail.
One Rosemount household’s mailbox has been stuffed with more than 40 political flyers in the two months leading up to the Nov. 8 election. Three registered voters reside at the home and all three routinely vote in general elections, but do not participate in caucuses or vote in partisan primaries.
The household is in congressional and state House districts that have swung between Republicans and Democrats in the last decade.
The number of political mailers declined in 2022 from the 54 sent to the household during the 2018 midterms. It also is significantly less than the number of messages sent during the last two presidential elections.
Yet, even as candidates increase spending on digital advertising, such as on social media and other online outlets, don’t expect direct mail political advertising to fall by the wayside.
Steven Schier, a retired professor of political science from Carleton College, says direct mail has some big benefits to candidates. Typically, the more a household gets, the more competitive the local races.
“First of all, it is guaranteed delivery. You at least look at it. That’s progress for the campaign,” Schier said. “It is not that expensive to do. We are going to be dealing with this for a while.”
Key in local races
Half of the messages sent to the household were about the race for Minnesota House District 56B where incumbent John Huot, of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, faces fellow Rosemount resident Republican Joe Scanlon. Huot currently represents district 57B, but redistricting after the 2020 U.S. Census put him in a new House district.
Of the 22 mailers the household received about the House District 56B race, 15 were negative about the opposing candidate and seven had positive messages. The majority of the mailers were funded by the candidates or the state political parties while a few came from political action committees aligned with Democrats.
The negative messages about Huot focused on taxes and public safety while those about Scanlon were largely about abortion rights.
The two candidates have spent about $56,000 on the race with Scanlon spending $29,620 and Huot $26,484, according to Minnesota Campaign Finance Board reports filed in late October. Huot had about $10,500 on hand heading into the final days before the election, three times Scanlon’s $3,500.
Schier says candidates in down-ballot races, like the Minnesota House contest, rely heavily on direct mail to reach voters. Candidates in these contests don’t typically have money for television ads so, outside a visit from a candidate or canvasser, political flyers are the most cost-effective way to reach voters.
“It might be the only communication (voters) receive about that race,” Schier said.
Congressional focus
The other big focus of the political messages sent to the Rosemount home were about the 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Democrat Angie Craig is again facing Republican Tyler Kistner. Craig narrowly won the matchup in 2020 and the race is seen as one of the most competitive congressional races in the U.S.
More than $9 million has been spent by the two candidates this election cycle, according to Open Secrets, which tracks political spending. Outside groups have poured $15 million into the race.
All nine of the mailers sent to the Rosemount home were about Rep. Craig and seven of them had negative messages about taxes and crime. Several sought to tie her to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and fellow congresswoman Ilhan Omar, D-Minneapolis.
The majority of the flyers were sent by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC dedicated to electing Republicans to Congress, which has spent nearly $5.5 million on the race. In contrast, the House Majority PAC, which is aligned with Democrats, spent $4.2 million on the race, according to Open Secrets.
Other contests
Rounding out the mailers sent to the Rosemount household were three sent in support of DFLer Erin Maye Quade, who is running for a state Senate seat against Republican Jim Bean. Maye Quade has spent roughly $94,000 on the race, over five times more than Bean’s $16,700, according to state data.
Another three mailers were in support of Matt Little, who is running against Kathy Keena for Dakota County attorney. The nonpartisan office is open for the first time in 34 years after the retirement of James Backstrom, who Keena worked under for 20 years.
Finally, the home got five mailers encouraging residents to vote, including one each from Republicans and Democrats highlighting the parties’ candidates for local and statewide office.
