Nikola Jokić has their number

Nikola Jokić isn’t someone you stop, he’s someone you limit … are the exact 10 words I used to open my last piece about Jokić. For the Minnesota Timberwolves, though, he isn’t someone you limit. He’s someone you survive.

Against Minnesota this year, Jokić has thrown down some of the most ridiculous stats against a single team I’ve ever seen: 35.8 points, 15 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game, including A 56-16-15 GAME in which he shot 71 percent from the floor. The Timberwolves have lost three out of four meetings this year, but don’t worry: they will get at least four more chances to defend Jokić this year! 

The Timberwolves cannot guard Nikola Jokić whatsoever

Jokić hasn’t only destroyed the Timberwolves this year, owing to his averaging-a-triple-double and probably having the best statistical season of his career; if you’re into advanced stats, I could tell you that he has the highest box plus-minus ever this season, he’s leading the league in VORP, he assists on OVER HALF of Nuggets baskets, you know … the usual. 

But against Minnesota, it’s been really something. Jokić has basically only seen two defenders from the Wolves: Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert, and both have been straight barbecue chicken. Jokić is shooting 66.7 and 65 percent from the floor against Randle and Gobert, respectively, and among defenders who have guarded the Serbian Sommelier (I made that nickname up, we’re going with it) for at least 10 minutes of game time, only Drew Eubanks has surrendered a similar percentage — but it gets so much worse. 

Randle and Gobert have not simply struggled to stop Jokić from scoring. They’ve struggled to stop him from doing … anything. Among all matchups, he’s only scored more points against not-exactly-the-pinnacle-of-defensive-footwork bigs Alparen Sengun and Donovan Clingen, but Randle and Gobert have surrendered the most assists despite also giving up tons of buckets. To be fair, that 56-16-15 game probably cooked their matchup numbers almost singlehandedly, but also to be fair, they were the ones that gave up that statline. 

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert have been unable to stop Jokić at all. Can anyone?

Jokić is so comfortable against Randle and Gobert that they may as well be a couch and a recliner. Explaining why that is comes down to a couple of theories; first, Jokić is one of, if not the most talented offensive players in NBA history so there’s that. It’s also true that Jokić has seen these guys a lot in his career, and his supercomputer basketball brain has just solved the geometry of the matchup. So what’s the move?

If we look down the Wolves’ roster and see who else has guarded Jokić, there’s not a lot of options. Jaden McDaniels has had little success, and Naz Reid has had no success. Everyone else is too small to actually shadow the Joker, so we’re really just talking about junk sets, doubles and trick defenses with a smaller player to try to throw him off. Jokić has committed proportionally more turnovers when defended by guards, but I don’t see much that suggests the Alex Caruso playbook is actually broadly applicable.  

That’s … kinda it. Defending Nikola Jokić isn’t some Hollywood movie with a happy ending where everything resolves and the detective solves the case and everyone shares a cold one, reminiscing about how hard it was to stop Jokić but the power of friendship figured it out in the end. The Wolves have had nothing for Jokić for years. The only good news is he’s just one guy.

Minnesota will need to play perfectly if Jokić is going to run amok

The Denver Nuggets will have to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves by playing at least five players, and probably seven or eight. They can’t just trot out five Jokićs and expose their secret that they’ve secretly been cloning him and that’s why he keeps getting better. Cam Johnson and Bruce Brown will have to make shots. Aaron Gordon will need to defend his heart out. Jamal Murray will need to be … Jamal Murray (he’s been great this year, I’m not worried).

Ultimately, defending the rest of the Nuggets will need to be the win condition, and Minnesota needs to be nails offensively to keep up with the Serbian Sommelier (yes this nickname is happening, please do not resist). Nothing about this is going to be easy. At times, it will feel impossible. But this isn’t about success, it’s about survival. For a team staring down the gauntlet the Wolves have stumbled into, survival is the best we can ask for.

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