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MNF Week 2: Falcons-Eagles Preview, Props, Prediction

A C Gazette
By A C Gazette
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NFL: Philadelphia Eagles OTAMay 30, 2024; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) during practice at NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Atlanta Falcons will be hoping for a dramatic turnaround from their Week 1 debacle with a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia has had Atlanta’s number in recent years, winning four of the last five against the Falcons.

But new Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has a winning record against the Eagles (6-5). Cousins has struggled on “Monday Night Football” with a record of 3-10. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts is 4-4 on MNF, including a 24-7 win over Cousins when he was with the Vikings (Week 2, 2022).

Odds and Trends

Philadelphia opened as just a 4.5-point home favorite despite their strong performance in Week 1 vs. the Packers. But it didn’t take long for the line to move. Bettors can still find the Eagles at -5.5, while Atlanta’s supporters can find the Eagles at +6.5.

The Eagles and Falcons last met in Week 1 of the 2021 season, a game Philadelphia won 32-6. But Hurts and Cousins last faced off in 2023 when Cousins was with the Vikings in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Cousins threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns, but Hurts got the win 34-28.

Given how games unfolded Week 1, it comes as no surprise that the public is getting behind Philly. At BetMGM, 82 percent of the point spread tickets, and 88 percent of the money is on the Eagles.

But, according to an industry average, 47 percent of spread tickets are on Philadelphia and 53 percent on Atlanta. Moneyline bets heavily favor the Eagles, with 92 percent of the handle and 95 percent of tickets.

However, bettors are relatively split regarding the total: 56 percent of the money and 48 percent of tickets on the OVER (44 percent and 52 percent on the UNDER).

Recent history has favored the home team on MNF, 59-43, over the last five years. However, betting on the visiting team wasn’t a bad idea; they went 53-45-4 ATS. Favorites have gone 67-37 SU and 45-55-4 ATS since 2018.

Prop Picks

–Saquon Barkley, 2+ Touchdowns, +270 at FanDuel: He had three against the Packers in Week 1, two rushing and one receiving. It seemed like new OC Kellen Moore will make the most of his running back (while he’s healthy), especially near the goal line. There is no value in betting on his anytime odds, but it would not be shocking to see him get two vs. the Falcons.

–Jalen Hurts, O/U 39.5 Yards Rushing, -113/-113 at FanDuel: Running the ball is part of the reason Hurts is such a dangerous QB. But Kellen Moore seemed reluctant to call designed runs for Hurts in Week 1. On several of his 13 carries did not go for much since he looked for someone to throw to as long as he could.

With Barkley available to do the dirty work in the run game, expect less from Hurts. Take the UNDER.

Key Stats

Cousins is 12-20 in primetime games and 3-10 on MNF. However, while his win-loss record is not good, he has been. He ranks 12th in passer rating out of the 64 quarterbacks that have attempted 500+ passes in primetime games.

The News

Expectations were high for the Atlanta Falcons coming into the season. With skill position players like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London, many viewed them as a team that needed competent quarterback play to succeed.

Enter Kirk Cousins.

While his teams have not seen much postseason success, his ability to get the ball moving on offense is undeniable, especially in the passing game. He played six seasons with the Vikings, starting 15+ in his first five. In those five, he threw for 4,000+ yards in four.

His best season may have been his first. He made history by becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 70 percent of his passes for 30 touchdowns and 4,000+ yards with ten interceptions (or fewer).

Fans in Atlanta probably hoped that would be the guy they’d see in Week 1. The offense sputtered as Cousins completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked twice and threw two interceptions as the Falcons lost to the Steelers 18-10.

While it is no consolation, there were several mitigating factors. Week 1 was his first game back after missing the second half of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles. It was his first game on a new team, in a new offense with a new offensive coordinator, a new center, and new skill position players.

Thanks to his recovery, he did not have enough time to develop the level of familiarity necessary to play well on Sunday. But there is a bright side for Falcons fans — Cousins and the offense can only get better.

Can they improve enough to be competitive with the Eagles tonight?

Injury Report

Both teams have ruled out players for Monday night’s tilt. Hurts will be without his No. 1 wide receiver, A.J Brown (hamstring). Atlanta will not have cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr. (groin) and linebacker Nate Landman (calf, quadriceps). Eagles receiver Johnny Wilson is listed as questionable.

Prediction

If Cousins and the Atlanta offense were clicking on all cylinders, this could be a competitive game. However, growing pains are expected, which should keep expectations low for the Falcons’ offense.

Without the offense giving them a break, the defense will get worn out after getting a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley. Hurts will miss Brown, but the Eagles have plenty of talented weapons at his disposal.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Falcons 13

–Field Level Media

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