MLB standings reveal more trade deadline sellers than fans think

A theme throughout the 2026 season has been the fact that there are a few good teams, a few bad teams, and a vast majority of the league somewhere in the middle. We know the Los Angeles Dodgers are World Series favorites, and we know that the Colorado Rockies are cellar-dwellers, but for much of the first 100 games of the regular season, we had no idea how good about 20-ish teams actually were. That made predicting what was going to happen at the trade deadline rather difficult.

Fast forward to July 23, and there’s much more clarity regarding which teams will be selling when looking at the MLB standings. It’s still hard to fully figure out how aggressively some teams will be buying, but others have played poorly lately to the point where they’ll almost certainly be selling. Let’s dive in.

American League standings

The Boston Red Sox’s franchise-tying 15-game winning streak catapulted them into sole possession of the third Wild Card spot in the AL just when it appeared as if they were going to be major sellers, but simultaneously, other teams have begun falling out of the race.

The Toronto Blue Jays are a prime example of this. They had gotten to within three games of .500 on July 10 after a win in San Diego but have lost eight of nine since, falling to 10 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. They were a team in between at the All-Star break, but how they’ve played since the Midsummer Classic should have them in sell mode.

They’re not the only ones. I know how badly the Detroit Tigers want to win with Tarik Skubal, and it’d be frustrating to part with him, but what other choice do they have? They’re 4.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with five teams ahead of them. The odds, obviously, are not in their favor. Barring an immediate winning streak, I don’t see how they can justifiably buy and/or hold onto Skubal.

Even the Seattle Mariners need to be thinking about things. They’re the least likely seller on this list, especially given how lackluster the AL West is, but they’ve struggled all year and have a gauntlet of an upcoming schedule. If they continue to struggle leading up to the deadline, can they justifiably buy? It’s hard for any sub-.500 team to buy, and every team outside of a playoff spot right now is under .500 in the AL.

National League standings

The same three teams have been at the bottom of the National League standings all year, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be the only teams selling veterans at the deadline. At least a few others are bound to join them.

The Cincinnati Reds are one of them, as they’re now seven games under .500 and 5.5 games back. The San Diego Padres are another team that’s been discussed. A.J. Preller loves to make splashy moves, but the Padres are two games under .500 and have a roster full of holes. There’s a reason Mason Miller’s name has been prevalent in rumors lately.

Even when you look higher up in the standings, there are possible sellers. For example, the Miami Marlins, once the hottest team in baseball, have lost nine in a row, falling to just one game over .500. The Washington Nationals continue to hover around the .500 mark thanks to a historically bad bullpen. What’re they going to do, know that they’re not just one or two bullpen pieces away from fixing the mess they’ve created? The St. Louis Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 15 games. They’re right in the thick of the race, but if they continue to trend downward, are we sure they won’t be selling? Even when they were playing well, rumors suggested they weren’t going to aggressively buy.

There’s still more time for things to get sorted out, but a deadline that was once projected to be boring due to a lack of sellers could be far more interesting than initially expected.

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