Now that we’re a week into September, it feels like the right time to pay attention to magic numbers. For those unaware, magic numbers are essentially for contending teams to keep track of down the stretch as a countdown towards clinching something. Clinching a playoff spot is just step one of what the Los Angeles Dodgers, in particular, hope to be many.
The Dodgers are inching closer to clinching another postseason appearance, giving them a golden opportunity to win a third straight World Series title. Here’s a look at just how close Los Angeles is to popping champagne for the first of what could be many times.
What is the Dodgers magic number to make the playoffs?
The Dodgers’ magic number entering Wednesday’s action is at six. The formula to come up with this, as written by MLB.com, is as follows: “Games remaining +1 – (Losses by second place team – losses by first place team).” The Dodgers have 17 games remaining. The team that’s chasing them in the playoff race, the San Diego Padres, have 68 losses. The Dodgers have 57 losses. This means the formula for the Dodgers is 18 – (68-57). The math for that comes out to seven, but since the Dodgers have the tiebreaker over the Padres, their magic number is technically six.
Getting to the playoffs is step one, but ultimately, that isn’t good enough for a team that’s won back-to-back World Series titles. It’s World Series or bust for Los Angeles, and their odds of winning it all would be better if they won the NL West.
What is the Dodgers’ magic number to win the NL West?
The Dodgers’ 10.5-game lead in the NL West is the largest of any division leader, and that has them in position to clinch another division title sooner rather than later. Using the same formula above, the Dodgers’ magic number to clinch the NL West is seven. The math is technically the exact same, as the team that’s chasing them, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have the same number of losses as the Padres, but since the Diamondbacks have the tiebreaker over L.A., the Dodgers will need one extra win OR one extra Diamondbacks loss to clinch the division over Arizona. If the Dodgers go 7-10 the rest of the way, they’ll control their own destiny.
Winning the division guarantees the Dodgers home-field advantage in at least one postseason series, but they’re trying to get the No. 1 seed in a race against the Brewers and Braves. Right now, the Dodgers are the No. 2 seed, meaning they’d get a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NLDS. It also means they have likely matchups to keep in mind.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Dodgers postseason matchups
Atlanta Braves
If the Dodgers end up as the No. 2 seed, which is where they currently are, they’d face the winner of the Wild Card Series featuring the No. 3 seed and the No. 6 seed. Right now, the Atlanta Braves are the No. 3 seed, and since they’d have home-field advantage and almost certainly the better record against the No. 6 seed, they’d be favored to advance to the NLDS, where the Dodgers would be waiting.
This would be a very tough matchup for L.A., as the Braves won five of the six regular-season meetings between the teams, including sweeping the Dodgers in a three-game series at Truist Park in late August. All three of those games were decided by one run, so it’s not like Atlanta dominated the Dodgers, but having to deal with Chris Sale twice in a best-of-five series would not be easy. Sale threw a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers in that late-August series, outdueling Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the process. This is a matchup the Dodgers would love to avoid.
Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres
The way things stand right now, the Braves would likely play either the Diamondbacks or the Padres in the Wild Card Series. The Diamondbacks hold a 0.5-game edge over San Diego, so they’d be in if the season ended today, but that race is far from decided. Honestly, I’m not even sure which team the Dodgers should prefer to play against between the two.
On one hand, the Padres are more talented than the Diamondbacks, and they gave the Dodgers a close call in the 2024 NLDS. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are ahead of the Padres despite being without Corbin Burnes (who returned from the IL on Tuesday) for the entire season, and they’ve been tougher for the Dodgers to beat this season than the Padres. Either way, it won’t be easy for the Dodgers.
Philadelphia Phillies/Chicago Cubs
If the Dodgers were to overtake the Brewers for the No. 1 seed (they’re 1.5 games back right now), their first postseason series would be against the winner of the Wild Card Series featuring the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. As of now, the Philadelphia Phillies are the No. 4 seed and the Chicago Cubs are the No. 5 seed.
The Phillies are tough given their elite starting rotation (a Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo trio in a five-game series is tough to beat), but so are the Cubs, who might be the best defensive team in the league and have a loaded lineup led by NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Dodgers won four of six against the Phillies in the regular season but lost four of six against the Cubs.
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