Mar 31, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) runs the bases after hitting a three-run home run in the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images That comes in Milwaukee, where the Reds and Brewers open a four-game series. For whatever reason, the home side is favored (-120) by the oddsmakers—albeit barely.
Still, it’s a baffling decision to list the Brewers as favorites. Just look at the pitching matchup.
Former New York Yankee Nestor Cortes gets the ball for his second start as a Brewer. It would be hard to duplicate something as nightmarish as what he put on display in his team debut last week on the road at Yankee Stadium.
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Another concerning stat from Cortes’ 2024 season: Opponents hit .245 against him, the highest mark he has registered since becoming a full-time starter.
The signs are there that Cortes is in for a tough season—let alone a tough start to it—and for his second assignment, he’ll face an opponent that may not let him settle in due to their aggressive baserunning. The Reds were one of three teams in the majors last year to record at least 200 stolen bases, and they boast the league’s top baserunner in that category, Elly De La Cruz.
But this bet hinges more on the other starter in this matchup, Nick Lodolo.
The 27-year-old was a breakout candidate coming into the season, and he flashed that potential in his first start of the year last weekend, going six strong innings against a San Francisco Giants lineup that is averaging five runs per game early on.
As I noted in his first outing, Lodolo was actually tremendous last year despite finishing with a 4.76 ERA. Before experiencing blister and finger issues, he had a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP entering July and arguably should have been an All-Star.
The TCU product has faced the Brewers four times since debuting in the majors three years ago. In those games, he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 24 innings while notching 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Additionally, Lodolo may benefit from pitching on the road in this one. He has been considerably better away from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Expect Lodolo to continue his ascent. Cincinnati should be able to supply him with enough run support, and that will be that. Source link
