UConn has emerged as the odds on favorite to win the NCAA Tournament heading into the 2023 Final Four but Miami (Florida) will try to pull another upset victory as it looks to win the school’s first ever National Championship.
No team has been more impressive than the Connecticut Huskies this March, winning all four games in the West Region by more than 15 points and blew the doors off of the likes of Arkansas and Gonzaga in the second weekend by a combined 51 points.
UConn is a considerable favorite, but Miami has been on a tear since rallying to beat Drake in the first round, blowing out Indiana and Houston before beating Texas in shocking fashion in the Elite Eight.
How will this national semifinals go? Here are the odds:
Miami (Florida) vs. UConn odds, spread and total
Miami (Florida) vs. UConn prediction and pick
On paper, this is a mismatch for the Miami defense, who will struggle with the size of UConn down low. The Hurricanes are 246th in two-point field goal percentage allowed and struggle to pressure the ball for all 40 minutes.
With the likes of Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan in the post, UConn should generate easy buckets all game long and get second chances against a poor defensive rebounding group in the Hurricanes. The Huskies are second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and the ‘Canes are below the national average on the defensive glass.
Miami advanced out of the Midwest Region due to its insane shot making. The team has the ceiling to beat any team in the country when the likes of Nijel Pack (hit seven of 10 three’s against Houston), Isaiah Wong (27 against Indiana) or Jordan Miller (27 points on seven-of-seven from the field, 13-of-13 from the line vs.Texas).
The Hurricanes can get to the free throw line against a handsy UConn bunch, the team was able to slow down Texas that way, but the Longhorns don’t have the size down low to get easy buckets against Miami’s shaky interior defense and match the ACC team’s offense.
Further, the Huskies do a fantastic job of running teams off the three-point line, allowing the 12th lowest three-point rate in the country. The Hurricanes are a lethal midrange shooting team as well, 41st nationally, but UConn is top five on the defensive side of the ball.
Overall, this feels like a lot of points to give such strong guard play, but I see too many holes on the Hurricanes’ defense for the Huskies not to push into the high 70’s. UConn is comfortable playing fast on offense and I don’t see Miami staying competitive in a half court based matchup. They will need to play fast and hope its guard play leads them through.
I’ll avoid the spread and target the Huskies team total as my favorite bet in this Final Four matchup, a number they have gone over with ease in three of four games. The game they didn’t, they put up 70 points on a methodical Saint Mary’s team that allowed that many points in regulation in only three other games this season.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
