Selection Sunday is here, which means Sports Illustrated is inching closer to locking in a final projected men’s NCAA tournament bracket. But first there’s some business to still be taken care of.
The big story coming into Saturday was conference tournament surges by Texas A&M and Virginia Tech, which gave each team life in its bubble hopes. That continued with a pair of convincing wins, as the Hokies officially punched their ticket with a win over Duke and Texas A&M moved into the projected field with a dominant semifinal win over Arkansas. Virginia Tech climbs all the way to our last No. 9 seed—now that it’s automatically in the field, its metrics mean it will top a lot of other bubble teams for seeding.
The casualties of these bid thieves are teams like Xavier and Oklahoma, which have waffled in and out of the projected field throughout the last few days. At No. 30 in KenPom, the Sooners would be one of the higher-ranked teams to miss the cut in recent memory, but an ugly overall win-loss record combined with a 10–14 record in Quad 1 + 2 games is enough to have OU just on the outside looking in.
The other primary storyline from Saturday was the top two seed lines sorting themselves out with conference tournament semifinals and finals. Arizona and Kansas each moved up a spot on the seed list, to No. 2 and No. 3 overall, respectively, after winning their conference tournaments, jumping Baylor in the process. The practical impact of that is that Arizona gets to play in San Antonio for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rather than Chicago, and Baylor heads to Philadelphia instead of San Antonio or Chicago. Kentucky’s case for a No. 1 ended (at least in my eyes) with Saturday’s loss to Tennessee, which helped solidify the Vols on the No. 2 line themselves. Meanwhile, Villanova beating Creighton in the Big East final combined with Duke’s loss to Virginia Tech makes the Wildcats the clear choice over the Blue Devils for a No. 2 seed.
What Sunday’s championship games mean:
12 p.m. ET: Princeton vs. Yale: This one’s for the Ivy League crown but has minimal implications beyond that. Princeton is in SI’s field as a No. 13 seed, while Yale would likely be a No. 15 or No. 16 if it can pull the upset.
1 p.m. ET: Texas A&M vs. Tennessee: Texas A&M will likely be in SI’s projected field regardless of the result in the SEC title game because of the Aggies’ miraculous run this week, but winning it would guarantee that TAMU avoids the First Four in Dayton and avoids a nervous watch party when the field is released. Meanwhile, a Tennessee win would lock in the Vols on the No. 2 line, a spot they’d only be at risk of relinquishing with a loss and a Purdue win.
1 p.m. ET: Davidson vs. Richmond: This is a bid-stealer situation. Davidson will be in the field regardless of what happens in this one, but Richmond’s only path to the Big Dance is a win. Bubble teams sweating out their fate should be big Davidson fans Sunday, as a Richmond win would shrink the bubble by another spot. As it stands now, the casualty there would be Notre Dame, our current last team in the field.
3:15 p.m. ET: Memphis vs. Houston: If Houston wants a No. 4 seed, it desperately needs to win this game and avoid going 0–3 against Memphis this season. The Cougars’ elite metrics can only take them so far. Memphis is likely sticking on the No. 9 line regardless of what the Tigers do in this game, though they could push up another seed.
3:30 p.m. ET: Iowa vs. Purdue: Iowa’s outstanding run so far at the Big Ten tournament has opened the door for the Hawkeyes to claim a No. 4 seed, though Fran McCaffery’s team likely needs a win over Purdue to get pushed over the top in that pursuit. Meanwhile, Purdue is likely locked on the No. 3 line, but a win over Iowa paired with a Tennessee loss in the SEC tournament might just push the Boilers to the No. 2 line.
On the Bubble:
Last Four Byes:
San Francisco
Miami
Indiana
Michigan
Last Four In:
SMU
Wyoming
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
First Four Out:
Oklahoma
Rutgers
Xavier
Wake Forest
Next Four Out:
VCU
BYU
North Texas
Dayton
Arizona won the Pac-12 tournament on Saturday, lifting it to No. 2 overall in our bracket.
Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports
*Indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
Bold indicates team has won its conference’s automatic bid
West Region
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 North Carolina
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Chattanooga
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Davidson*
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Delaware
No. 7 Boise State vs. No. 10 Iowa State
No. 2 Tennessee* vs. No. 15 Georgia State
South Region
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Bryant/Texas Southern
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 SMU/Notre Dame
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Montana State
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Marquette
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Colgate
Midwest Region
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Wright State
No. 8 Murray State vs. No. 9 Creighton
No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Texas A&M/Wyoming
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 New Mexico State
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Michigan
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Akron
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago
No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State
East Region
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Cal State Fullerton
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech
No. 5 Houston* vs. No. 12 UAB
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Princeton*
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Miami
No. 3 Purdue* vs. No. 14 Longwood
No. 7 LSU vs. No. 10 San Francisco
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s
SI’s updated bracket (as of 8 a.m., March 13):
Click here for full-sized image.
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