Democrats opposed to a Senate rules change that would defang the filibuster to push through voting rights legislation are starting to see the potential electoral consequences of their decision. Two years before their reelection races, Sen. Joe Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema are losing support from allied groups and facing threats of primary challenges over their filibuster positions.
Neither senator is up for reelection until 2024, but that hasn’t stopped early consideration of primary challenges even with the November midterm elections months away and Democrats’ ultra-slim Senate majority at risk. The latest outrage over Manchin and Sinema is over their opposition to any new precedent that circumvents the 60-vote threshold to advance legislation, and the method of making such a change on a party-line vote, known as the “nuclear option.”
Manchin of West Virginia and Sinema of Arizona have outsized influence because in a split 50-50 Senate, any one Democratic senator voting no can sink the party’s agenda. During his voting rights speech in Georgia, President Joe Biden recently described such a dynamic as having “51 presidents.”
Both Democrats have voiced major concerns over Biden’s Build Back Better plan to expand the social safety net and climate policy, which has stalled and taken a back seat to voting rights. Even though both support a combined bill to establish federal election standards and restore the 1965 Voting Rights Act, they are against filibuster reform. And because there’s no GOP support, Manchin and Sinema won’t use the nuclear option to make rules with only a simple majority.
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With Senate Democrats on the cusp of defeat on a procedural vote to advance the voting rights bill and the anticipated debate on a talking filibuster proposal on Wednesday, Democratic donor groups as well as lawmakers are taking a second look at Sinema and Manchin, who play a consequential role in enacting the rest of the party’s priorities and keeping its fragile majority.
EMILY’s List, a group that endorses female candidates who support abortion rights, said Tuesday it will no longer support Sinema if she continues her opposition to a rules change to unlock voting rights. The group endorsed and gave significant financial contributions to her 2018 Senate campaign against former GOP Sen. Martha McSally but hasn’t contributed to her since.
“Right now, Sen. Sinema’s decision to reject the voices of allies, partners and constituents who believe the importance of voting rights outweighs that of an arcane process means she will find herself standing alone in the next election,” EMILY’s List President Laphonza Butler said.
“Electing Democratic pro-choice women is not possible without free and fair elections,” she added. “If Sen. Sinema cannot support a path forward for the passage of this legislation, we believe she undermines the foundations of our democracy, her own path to victory and also the mission of EMILY’s List, and we will be unable to endorse her moving forward.”
NARAL Pro-Choice America, a pro-abortion rights group, followed suit and said it will withhold support from any sitting senator who doesn’t back a Senate rules change to move voting rights forward, though it didn’t directly address Manchin and Sinema.
“Today, we’re changing our endorsement criteria to reflect our commitment to the freedom to vote. Going forward, we won’t endorse any U.S. senator who doesn’t support changing the Senate rules to pass voting rights legislation. Our democracy is on the line,” NARAL Pro-Choice America President Mini Timmaraju said.
Lawmakers themselves could also get behind primary challenges to their colleagues. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a top progressive leader, responded to a reporter’s question on Tuesday by saying he’d be open to supporting challenges against either Manchin or Sinema.
Generally, sitting lawmakers don’t support primaries against fellow colleagues and incumbents. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York wouldn’t entertain any questions about the political ramifications at a Tuesday evening press conference when asked about the growing electoral backlash to the two senators or whether he could get behind primary bids to them.
“I’m not getting into the politics. The vast majority of our caucus strongly disagrees with Sens. Manchin and Sinema on rules changes,” Schumer said. “The overwhelming majority of our caucus knows that if you’re going to try and rely on Republican votes, you will get zero progress on voting rights right now.”
Manchin, who’s against the current plan to require a talking filibuster as well as use the nuclear option, waved off threats of a primary challenge, saying he’s always faced one running in West Virginia. Manchin has been a mainstay in West Virginia politics for four decades, serving in the state legislature, as governor and as a senator since 2011. He won a second Senate term in 2018 in a deep-red state that heavily went for former President Doanld Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
“I’ve been primaried my entire life. That would not be anything new to me,” Manchin told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday. “I’ve never run in an election (where) I wasn’t primaried. This is West Virginia – it’s rough and tumble. We’re used to that, so bring it on.”
Sinema, meanwhile, hasn’t publicly indicated where she stands on the current talking filibuster plan but reiterated her support last week for keeping the 60-vote requirement. Arizona has turned bluer over the past several years and in 2018, Sinema became the first Democrat elected to the Senate in Arizona in about three decades.
Both senators argue their long-standing views on the filibuster preserve a voice for whichever party occupies the minority and foster an environment for bipartisanship and compromise. The talking filibuster plan proposed by Schumer would require senators who specifically object to the elections bill to be physically present and debate it. When time eventually elapses, they’d take a vote set at a simple majority of 51 votes.
But primary efforts are already underway, like the group Primary Sinema Project. Since launching in late September, the organization says it’s raised more than $250,000, with about $28,000 of that coming in a day after Sinema’s floor speech about preserving the filibuster.
The group, which is part of the super PAC Change for Arizona 2024, says it won’t back a particular candidate but instead raise funds to support other grassroots efforts that have worked on turning Arizona more Democratic and working on holding Sinema accountable.
Critics are eyeing a challenge from Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has represented a Phoenix-based district since his first election in 2014. He’s a Marine Corps veteran who belongs to the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Gallego hasn’t said whether he’ll run against Sinema in two years, but he directly called out Sinema’s decision to make a speech about the filibuster before Biden visited Capitol Hill to discuss such reforms.
