CHARLESTON — Results from a new poll released Monday show U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin may have a better read on West Virginia voters than Sen. Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont who wants a progressive Democrat to primary Manchin in 2024.
Jackson County radio station WMOV 1360 AM and Oregon-based Triton Polling and Research released the results of a new poll Monday showing support for Manchin, D-W.Va., his position on President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better social spending bill and his stance on the child tax credit. The poll also looks at potential matchups in 2024 for Manchin’s Senate seat and the governor’s race.
According to the poll, Manchin enjoys a 50.8 percent favorable opinion from the 783 likely voters polled across the state between Jan. 17 and Jan. 20. Another 40 percent had an unfavorable impression of Manchin.
When asked if they support continuing the enhanced child tax credit passed last March, 58 percent had both strongly supported or somewhat supported continuing the credit, with 36.4 percent somewhat or strongly opposed continuing the credit.
The enhanced credit provided parents with children age 6 or under with $300 per month and parents with older children with $250 per month. More than 300,000 children in West Virginia qualified for the enhanced credit, which expired earlier this month.
When asked if they supported or opposed the enhanced credit going to everyone regardless of income, including wealthy families, 64 percent opposed that and 32.2 percent supported that. When asked if they supported or opposed the enhanced credit being targeted only to families with low to middle income, 64.5 percent support that versus 29.4 percent who are opposed.
Nearly 40 percent of poll respondents said they would strongly support continuing the enhanced credit while Congress negotiates it, 15.7 percent said they somewhat supported continuing it, while 16.1 percent said they somewhat opposed it and 21.6 percent said they strongly opposed it.
When asked if the enhanced child tax credit should be paid out monthly or in a yearly lump sum, 68.7 percent said monthly and 7.5 percent said by lump sum. A total of 83 percent said grandparents who raise their grandchildren should be eligible for the enhanced credit, while a total of 13.8 percent opposed that.
Prior to the implosion on discussions for Build Back Better which would have extended the enhanced credit, Manchin was on the record in multiple media outlets supporting a work requirement and limiting the credit for low and middle class families. Manchin ultimately said he could not support the current version of Build Back Better, resulting in Sanders calling for a primary challenge to Manchin in 2024.
The poll looked at potential 2024 Republican challengers to Manchin should he run for re-election to a third term. In a theoretical race, Manchin would defeat current 2nd District Congressman Alex Mooney 48.6 percent to 27.7 percent. In a rematch between Manchin and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Manchin’s Republican challenger in 2018, Manchin would defeat Morrisey 49.9 percent to 28.6 percent.
A competition between Manchin and Gov. Jim Justice in 2024 yields closer results. According to the poll, 41 percent of respondents would vote for Manchin, 36.8 percent would vote for Justice, and 22.2 percent were unsure or did not know. Justice enjoys a 56 percent favorable impression among respondents, with 28.9 percent having an unfavorable impression.
Justice is in his second term as governor, having first taken office as a Democrat in 2017, switching to Republican later that year, and winning re-election in 2020. Justice is limited as governor to two terms. Despite Justice’s popularity, 75.4 percent of respondents said they opposed amending the state Constitution to lift the two-term limit while 20.8 percent said they would support lifting the limit.
The poll also looked at two potential candidates for governor in 2024. When asked if they considered Chris Miller, the son of 3rd District Congresswoman Carol Miller and car dealership owner, a serious candidate for governor, 45.9 percent said no and 14.5 percent said yes, while 39.6 percent were unsure or didn’t know, revealing a name recognition issue among voters. Miller announced as a Republican candidate for governor in December.
When asked whether they have a favorable opinion of Senate President Craig Blair, R-Berkeley, 14.6 percent said they had a favorable impression, 29.3 percent said they had an unfavorable impression, 24.4 percent said they had heard of Blair but had no opinion, and 27.9 percent said they had never heard of him. Blair, who also serves as lieutenant governor and is listed as an undeclared pre candidate for 2024 according to the West Virginia Secretary of State’s Campaign Finance Reporting System.
State Treasurer Riley Moore had a 21.8 percent favorable impression among respondents, a 12.9 percent unfavorable impression, 36.7 percent who had no opinion, 24.4 percent who had never heard of Moore, and 4.2 percent who were unsure. Moore, the grandson of the late Republican governor Arch Moore and nephew of U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, defeated long-time Democratic State Treasurer John Perdue in 2020.
Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango, Justice’s Democratic challenger in the 2020 gubernatorial election, also was polled. Respondents gave Salango a 23.9 percent favorable impression, a 13.6 percent unfavorable impression, 36.7 percent had no opinion, 24.4 percent had never heard of Salango, and 4.2 percent were unsure.
Should Mooney become a possible candidate in 2024 for U.S. Senate or another statewide office, 25.5 percent of voters polled had a favorable impression of Mooney, 38.7 percent had an unfavorable impression of Mooney, 24 percent had no opinion of Mooney and 8 percent had never heard of him. Mooney also is running in the 2022 Republican primary for the new 2nd Congressional District against 1st District Congressman David McKinley.
On other issues, 57 percent support the West Virginia state government doing more to control the spread of COVID-19, while 33.8 percent oppose more government intervention. Another 59.2 percent support requiring COVID-19 vaccination for those who provide direct medical care, while 36.2 percent oppose vaccine mandates for doctors and nurses. Justice announced Monday he was seeking a federal waiver to exempt rural hospitals from COVID-19 vaccine mandates.
When asked if the federal child care assistance be provided through government-regulated childcare programs or directly to parents with monthly tax cuts to cover the cost, 38.1 percent supported direct payments and 30.5 percent supported support for childcare programs. More than 71 percent of respondents said the state should consider reducing either the personal income tax or consumer sales and use tax. And a total of 65.9 percent of respondents support the idea of the state making one-time payments of surplus tax revenue to taxpayers similar to what Alaska does.
The poll was conducted by automated telephone, also known as interactive voice response. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.
Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com.
