Likely comeback
Sadr, who has not made the kind of public appearances that once fired up supporters and intimidated rivals, has retreated from politics before only to make a return. Some of those close to the mercurial cleric expect this withdrawal to be temporary.
“As soon as there is a sign of a new election Sadr will sign up,” one of those close to him said.
Sadr, who has closed several of his offices since his withdrawal from politics, could not be reached for comment.
A representative of the cleric in the city of Kerbala said: “Sadr is watching closely the political developments and performance of Sudani’s government which he (Sadr) believes would not last much longer.”
A 2022 survey by British think-tank Chatham House found Sadr supporters were more likely to vote than other groups.
But, alongside losing some backing on the street, his hand may now have been weakened y his reluctance –when he had a chance– to show more pragmatism in forming a government with those backed by Tehran, which some see as an ally in the fight against Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group.
“The failure of Sadr to form such a government and the collapse of his alliance in the face of pushback from Iran and its allies in Iraq has affected Moqtada’s political position and forced him and his movement to take back seats,” said Baghdad-based analyst Jasim al-Bahadli.
Pro-Sadr clerics, former legislators and analysts say Sadr has no clearly defined political role for the first time since 2005, leaving him at his weakest since entering Iraqi politics.
In August, Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, a religious scholar in Iran who was anointed as a spiritual adviser by Sadr’s father, angered Sadr’s supporters by saying Sadr had split Shia forces.
Sadr officials, pro-Sadr Shia clerics and religious sources in the sacred Iraqi city of Najaf said they believed Tehran was behind the pronouncement.
Haeri told Sadr’s followers to seek future guidance on religious matters from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a scholar who is Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Sadr himself also suggested Haeri spoke under pressure without naming who was to blame. “I don’t believe he did this of his own volition,” Sadr wrote on Twitter.
Ghazi Faisal, chairman of the Iraqi Centre for Strategic Studies think-tank, said Haeri gave “momentum to Iranian efforts to consolidate the powers of its allies in Iraqi politics.”
When asked for comment, a representative of Haeri said the scholar did not comment on politics.
Many Shia Iraqis still view Sadr as a hero of the downtrodden. He inherited much early legitimacy from his father, a revered cleric assassinated by Saddam Hussein’s agents, before building his own powerbase and leading hundreds of thousands of followers in protests against everything from corruption to inflation.
Human rights groups accused Sadr militiamen of kidnapping and killing Sunnis at the height of Iraq’s civil war. Sadr says his fighters were hunting down Sunni extremists not civilians.
