“(Iowa-1) shrank geographically because it picked up Johnson and Scott Counties while keeping Linn,” Hagle said. “Those more populous counties forced more rural counties to be left to (Iowa-2).”
Central Iowa’s 3rd District would improve slightly for Democrats, moving their voter registration advantage there from just under 1 percentage point to just over 2 points. Perhaps just as important, Polk County would become an even bigger share of the overall district, from 56.1% of its registered voters to 60.3%. This is noteworthy because when Democrats win the district, they typically do so by only winning Polk County and driving up their margins there, while attempting to minimize their deficits in all of the other counties.
Western Iowa’s 4th District, a longtime conservative stronghold (see: King, Steve) would get even more Republican, and it would also get bigger. The proposed new 4th District would be 44 counties, pushing close to half of the state. Geographically, it would span as far northeast as Howard and Chickasaw counties, cut the state diagonally and include Fremont, Mills and Montgomery counties in the southwest corner.
Larimer and Hagle said they believe the proposed maps would create two consistently competitive districts — the 2nd and 3rd — while the 4th would remain a Republican lock and the 1st a strong Democratic district.
“In terms of competitiveness, we are likely to remain a state with three competitive districts and one safe district,” Larimer said. “If you look across the country, for states with multiple (Congressional districts), Iowa sticks out in this regard in terms of the level of competition. I imagine we will once again be a state with at least two districts ranked among the most competitive in the country.”
