At the moment, new cases of COVID-19 in Florida are running three times the national average, and hospitalizations have soared to the highest levels of the pandemic.
The moves from DeSantis are in keeping with his relatively hands-off approach to the pandemic, at least compared to what other governors are doing. Before the latest wave, his push to keep Florida open for business during a time when other states were in lockdown paid off in a huge way politically.
During the past 18 months, for example, DeSantis has emerged as the leading front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 should Donald Trump not run for president. In poll after poll, no one even comes close to DeSantis, including any other member of the Trump family or even former vice president Mike Pence. It is notable that South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem also refused calls from public health officials to enact more safety restrictions in her state ahead of her own potential run for president, but DeSantis has eclipsed her as the face of the resistance to mask mandates and other moves.
But before DeSantis runs for president, he will run for reelection next year. While he has emerged as very popular among Republicans nationally this year, his approval ratings inside Florida have dropped significantly. While polling of the Florida governor’s race in 2022 is sparse, one recent survey showed him statistically tied with one of the announced Democratic candidates, state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.
This week, Fried suggested that DeSantis is falling even further out of favor with Floridians.
“I’ve seen a couple of polls actually recently that have shown him dropping 10, 15 points. And I would say that will continue to happen. Because as this individual is running for president of the United States in 2024, we see that in all of his policies,” said Fried on Peacock’s Mehdi Hasan show. “And so he is stepping on the backs of Floridians and now our children in order to get votes for president in 2024.”
Whether Fried’s assertion that his poll numbers will continue to drop pans out is unclear. But the gubernatorial election is well over a year away and who knows what the severity of the coronavirus will be at that point.
What is clear, however, is that DeSantis is using his reelection as the excuse to extensively travel around the country to meet major Republican donors, a move that certainly suggests he is looking beyond Tallahassee.
Therein is the huge gamble from DeSantis.
Should Florida emerge with a solid economy and coronavirus deaths roughly in line with the national average, DeSantis will benefit politically more than any other Republican in the country. In a Republican presidential field that could include as many as two-dozen candidates, starting ahead of the field matters.
In so doing, it might be the most high-stakes gamble in American politics since the decision from George W. Bush’s administration to go to war in Iraq. Leaving aside the false argument about Saddam Hussein amassing so-called weapons of mass destruction, the foreign policy and political gamble was this: By invading Iraq and establishing a successful democracy in the heart of a turbulent, oil-dependent Middle East, it could re-write norms in the entire region.
Obviously, that approach backfired. America didn’t have an exit strategy, democracy did not come to the region, and many people were killed in the fighting and resulting instability. Bush left office deeply unpopular and with Democrats controlling all of Washington.
Back in Florida, here is the thing: The easiest thing for DeSantis to do was to leave questions about mask mandates up to local school districts. He could even criticize decisions he didn’t agree with. But he didn’t do that and in so doing he is owning whatever comes of his heavy-handed approach.
Just like in Iraq, if things turn really bad in Florida, it is important to remember this is not a political game. People could die in higher numbers because they were following his language and actions as the state’s leader. The Delta variant, in particular, is infecting and sending more children to the hospital than ever before.
As much as this moment will define DeSantis’s career and influence his electoral prospects, it could deeply impact the economy and the lives of hundreds of thousands. Importantly, while no one wants to wear a mask in general, mask usage is high where leaders and businesses require them, especially among Democrats and independents.
Every time a parent sends their child off to school in Florida — with or without a mask — they will be thinking of one person: DeSantis.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell.
