WASHINGTON — Illinois Republicans will pick their nominee for governor on Tuesday in the most expensive campaign of the year, while primaries in other states will further test the strength of former President Donald Trump’s influence heading into November.
On the Democratic side, turnout for primaries in Colorado, Illinois and New York could offer clues about how much the Supreme Court’s recent decision striking down Roe v. Wade will energize the party’s base this fall.
And meddling in GOP primaries by both Trump and Democrats could have big implications in the November general election.
In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker is seeking a second term in hopes of making his state a safe-haven for women seeking abortions in the post-Roe landscape.
“We’re going to see potentially 10 to 20,000 more women crossing state lines — we already saw 10,000 last year — to exercise their reproductive rights. And we’ve been preparing for this,” Pritzker, a member of the wealthy family that owns the Hyatt hotel chain, said on MSNBC Tuesday. “We believe that people have a right that has been taken away, but we’re going to guarantee it in the state of Illinois.”
Pritzker, who is expected to cruise to victory Tuesday against challenger Beverly Miles, a registered nurse, is already looking ahead to November by trying to stack the deck in what he believes will be his favor.
The governor and Democratic allies have taken the unusual step of spending significant funds to meddle in the GOP primary by boosting hard-right candidate Darren Bailey, a state senator from the rural southern part of the state, over moderate Richard Irvin, the first Black mayor of Aurora, a Chicago suburb.
Irvin and his supporters spent more than $50 million on his campaign, and he is widely seen as the strongest GOP candidate against Pritzker in the blue state. But Bailey has been surging in the polls and secured Trump’s endorsement Sunday, making him the favorite on Tuesday — and sparking plenty of GOP infighting.
Democrats have also been injecting themselves into Colorado’s GOP primaries, trying to elevate right-wing candidates seeking to unseat Democratic Gov. Jared Polis and Sen. Michael Bennet. In doing so, they’re betting that those Republicans would have a much tougher time winning in a state where President Joe Biden defeated Trump by more than 13 percentage points in 2020.
In the Senate race, a mysterious super PAC called Democratic Colorado has spent more than $4 million boosting state Rep. Ron Hanks and portraying businessman Joe O’Dea, seen as the tougher Bennet opponent, as a “phony” conservative.
A similar effort in the governor’s race saw Democrats spending $1.5 million to boost Greg Lopez, the former mayor of a Denver exurb, over University of Colorado Board of Regents member Heidi Ganahl, who is seen as the most formidable opponent against Polis.
Democrats have also tried to help a Republican state senator, Don Coram, who is running against firebrand conservative U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert. A number of Democrats are running in the district as well, but it tilts Republican in the general election.
In New York, congressional primaries have been pushed back to August because of legal fights over redistricting, but both parties will select nominees for governor and lieutenant governor on Tuesday.
Polls show Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul with a strong lead about a year after she took over from disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, despite early expectations that Hochul would face a slew of high-profile primary challengers and difficult path to winning her party’s nomination.
Still, it won’t be a cakewalk on Tuesday. On her right is Rep. Thomas Suozzi of Long Island, who has tried to paint Hochul as soft on crime, while New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams on the left has argued Hochul hasn’t done enough to combat gun violence and help working families deal with inflation.
The GOP side, meanwhile, is a tossup. Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, a close Trump ally in Congress, is the nominal frontrunner, but he’s facing 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino, businessman Harry Wilson and Andrew Giuliani, the son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
With several allies in the race, Trump has stayed away and decided not to endorse any of the candidates in his former home state.
In Utah, Sen. Mike Lee, a Trump ally, is the heavy favorite for re-nomination but faces two primary challengers who did not vote for Trump in 2020 and have accused the conservative senator of forgetting about Utah as his national profile has risen.
Vocal anti-Trump critic Evan McMullin is running as an independent against Lee in November, and the Utah Democratic Party voted not to nominate their own candidate and support McMullin instead in the deep red state where a Democrat would stand little chance of winning.
In Mississippi, two incumbent Republican members of Congress could lose their seats after they were forced into runoffs to settle primaries that took place earlier this month: Rep. Steven Palazzo, who has faced ethics issues and allegations of misusing campaign funds, and Rep. Michael Guest, one of the Republicans who voted to create an independent commission to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, drawing the ire of some Trump supporters.
Nebraska, meanwhile, will hold a special election to replace former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, who resigned in March and was sentenced Tuesday to two years probation after being convicted of lying to federal agents in a corruption probe. Two state senators — Republican Mike Flood and Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks — face off against each other in the Republican-leaning 1st Congressional District.
In more than one state with a primary Tuesday, redistricting has pitted members of Congress against each other.
In Illinois, Trump is supporting Rep. Mary Miller, a first-term lawmaker who garnered national attention for saying shortly after being sworn into office that “Hitler was right about one thing,” and then earned scorn again this weekend at a rally with Trump when she called the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling a “victory for white life.” Her spokesperson later said she meant to say “right to life.”
Miller is facing longtime Rep. Rodney Davis, who voted to create the committee to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Marie Newman — best known for ousting anti-abortion Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski in a 2020 primary — is facing Rep. Sean Casten, whose 17-year-old daughter died unexpectedly this month.
And in Oklahoma, an open Senate seat has created a Republican pileup. Sen. Jim Inhofe’s retirement announcement sparked a crowded GOP primary field that includes Rep. Markwayne Mullin, former Trump EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.
