Viking Therapeutics (VKTX 0.11%) is a challenger in the obesity drugs gold rush, trailing Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as they rake in cash from their highly successful medicines. Viking’s lead candidate, VK2735, has shown in mid-stage clinical trials that it can take real weight off, but even good clinical data is a long way from owning market share, and Viking may never make that crossing.
So, how much would a $1,000 investment in the company today grow into by 2030 if VK2735 wins approval, and how much could evaporate if it falters?
This market is so big that a small player could make out like a bandit
By 2030, the weight loss drugs market could be worth around $95 billion, per an estimate from Goldman Sachs. J.P. Morgan estimates the broader market for GLP-1 medicines, which includes diabetes treatments, at nearly $200 billion by the same year. Let’s go with a $150 billion figure, a rough midpoint of those ranges, as our starting point for forecasting what a $1,000 investment in Viking would do.
The scenario here is that VK2735, sold as both a weekly shot and a daily pill, could capture 1% of the market. We calculate that 1% of $150 billion is $1.5 billion in annual sales. With a rich valuation multiple on those sales, say with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 10, the company would be worth around $15 billion; it’s worth $4.4 billion today, so in this case, a $1,000 investment would grow to reach somewhere in the ballpark of $3,400.
That isn’t the whole story, though, because Viking, like most clinical-stage biotechs, is burning its $603 million in cash and equivalents at a rapid pace and will almost certainly issue new shares of its stock to fund a phase 3 trial for the oral formulation of VK2735 as well as to fund its commercialization, assuming it gets approved by regulators. If the share count swells by more than 33% from today due to new fundraising, a $1,000 investment would then be roughly $2,500.
Image source: Getty Images.
To stretch an initial investment of $1,000 to an end value of $10,000, VK2735 would need to capture something like 3% to 5% of the market, plus having a premium multiple, and its shares would also need to experience minimal dilution from here.
That’s certainly possible, but it’s unlikely.
What VK2735 has to beat
If a 1% slice of the weight-loss drug market sounds too small, it’s because the competition is already fierce. It might be 2028 or 2029 before VK2735 gets approved and sold, assuming it does. By then, the playing field is more like a wall.
Lilly and Novo Nordisk already own the category with tirzepatide and semaglutide, and both now sell pills alongside their injections. Lilly’s next-generation triple agonist retatrutide took an average of 28.3% of body weight off over 80 weeks in a phase 3 trial, a very high bar for any medicines that need to compete with it. Novo has its next combination therapy already under review by regulators, with more candidates lined up in the pipeline.
So, VK2735 will not be the fresh face when it lands; it will be the latecomer.
Today’s Change
(-0.11%) $-0.04
Current Price
$37.44
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$4.3B
Day’s Range
$36.69 – $38.87
52wk Range
$22.96 – $43.15
Volume
2.5M
Avg Vol
2.4M
With that said, Viking’s data reads well in isolation. VK2735 led to up to 14.7% weight loss from the injectable in mid-stage testing. Again, to claim even 1% of the market, VK2735 needs a real edge in effectiveness, price, and/or tolerability, not just being a drug that also works.
The injectable’s phase 3 program doesn’t complete until 2027, and the oral trials are only now starting, though a phase 1 maintenance dosing readout is expected in the third quarter of 2026, which could shift near-term sentiment either way. The candidate may fail to reproduce their favorable data in a larger cohort. In that scenario, a pre-revenue biotech of this profile typically drops 60% to 80%, reducing a $1,000 investment to a couple of hundred dollars.
So, under the best-case scenario, a $1,000 investment in Viking could be worth $10,000 by 2030, but the most likely outcome is closer to $2,500, assuming most of what can go right does. It’s a risky play and one that fits best as a small position for investors comfortable with a wide range of outcomes.
