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Key takeaways:
Key takeaways:
- The 10-year old seller’s market is showing its age, with moderate purchase volume declines due to sharply higher rates & a cumulative 37% increase in constant quality HPA since Jan. 2020.
- Tight supply, the work from home revolution, & arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences are helping to extend the seller’s market.
- Purchase volume for week 46 is down 41% and 34% from 2021 & 2019, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 7% & 5% in Nov. & Dec. 2022, respectively.
- If the current mortgage rate of near 7% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 5% (y-o-y) as demand will further moderate and supply increases.
- Y-o-y HPA declines have already developed in the Western metros of Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and San Jose.
- Over time price declines will spread to the low end of some FHA markets, & in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.
- We expect the national seller’s market to end in 2023.
