Oct 3, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Parker Messick (77) leaves the game during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox in game one of the ALDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images For the first time this postseason, Cleveland’s offense came through. Scoring nine runs isn’t typical for the Guardians, who rely on dominant pitching and timely hitting to scrape together wins. On the other side, the White Sox lost Game 3 and missed an opportunity to end Cleveland’s season while keeping their remarkable story alive.
Game 4 MLB Best Betting Picks
But Chicago has Hagen Smith on the mound for Game 4, while the Guardians turn back to Parker Messick, who will likely finish third in American League Cy Young voting after a dominant rookie campaign.
The Guardians are slight favorites heading into Game 4. Kalshi, a popular prediction market that allows users to trade contracts of real-world outcomes like the MLB Playoffs, gives the Guardians a 52% chance of winning Game 4. The White Sox have a 49% chance of winning.
Messick is the better pitcher, regardless of this being his first road start in the postseason, and if Cleveland can score some runs against Smith’s White Sox, backing the favored GUARDIANS (-115) actually makes some sense.
The total for this game is set at 7.5 runs. Because of Cleveland’s inconsistent offense, paired with a dominant pitcher in Messick, we’ll avoid this number, but would lean UNDER 7.5 runs just because of the uncertainty regarding which version of the Guardians will show up.
Guardians vs. White Sox Game 4 Props
To no surprise, White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami is Chicago’s best chance against Messick. In four career at-bats against Messick, Murakami is 1-for-4 with a home run and an RBI. Murakami to record a hit (-130) has enough value to include in a parlay, even if it doesn’t come until Cleveland’s bullpen eventually replaces Messick.
