Refresh for analysis and chart….Universal’s Wicked: For Good is sticking to a 3-day domestic opening of $150M and global of $226M. This is easily the best start for Wicked 2 stars Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, director Jon M. Chu, and even producer Marc Platt (his previous global opening record being 2019’s Aladdin at $213M).
Lots of records are being broken with Wicked: For Good literally beating the first half of itself, that being last year’s Wicked. The first Wicked debuted to $1125M stateside, $164M global.
Said Universal Domestic Distribution President Jim, “From the moment tickets went on sale it was very clear that the audience for Wicked: For Good was beyond eager to come out and see what has truly become more than just a movie, rather a cultural event that continues to defy expectations, as well as gravity. Our producer Marc Platt, our director Jon Chu, and the incredible cast led by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande have delivered an experience that folks were desperately looking forward to, an epic adventure that is the very essence of theatrical.”
In terms of promotional partners, Wicked: For Good had 400 of them, who delivered more than $330 million in media and promotional value across Universal’s Symphony, global partnerships, licensing and retail. That promo partner campaign is the second highest for any motion picture studio behind Wicked‘s $350M a year ago.
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SATURDAY: Finally, theatrical has returned after a languorous autumn as Universal’s Wicked: For Good is now looking at a $151.5M opening after a Friday/previews of $68.6M.
The turn from rags to riches at the domestic box office, which is also a trend we witnessed before Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie put us in overdrive from spring to summer, is just a reminder that platinum IP, and platinum IP alone, is the only guarantee nowadays for a mass-appealing theatrical life. Either that or an original film that creates so much FOMO (i.e. Sinners and Weapons) that it stands above the cookie-cutter choices in a streaming menu. Overall, a much-needed win for the motion picture industry (especially when we’re about to see another studio in Warner Bros get swallowed up) as we head into the holiday season.
NRG tracking showed $130M on the low end for Wicked: For Good heading into the weekend, but the pre-sales indicated that the movie would surpass that projection.
Wicked: For Good has all the magic spells of audience scores and exits working in its favor. The Jon M. Chu-directed sequel gets an A CinemaScore, just like the first one. Definite recommend on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak is higher than the first, 83% to 80%. Who could ask for anything more? Five stars just like the first with a positive score that’s one point below Wicked‘s (92% to 93%, but it’s definite recommend which is the cash statistic, translating to an end-game multiple for the film). As we told you, Wicked‘s was a 4.2x last year with an opening of $112.5M that translated to a $474.9M domestic final. That outcome is in store, once again.
Part two is skewing 70%/30% female-male, very similar to Wicked‘s 72%/28%. The 18-34 demographic this time around is 61% to Wicked‘s 57%. Women over 25 at 44% are leading (to Wicked‘s 48%), women under 25 are at 26% (vs 24% a year ago), men over 25 at 22% (vs. 21%) and men over 25 trailing at 8% (vs. 7%). There’s no question — it’s the same turnout as last November. The only difference is that there were slightly more moviegoers going in packs this time around, 46% taking anywhere from 1 to 5 friends, versus 40% a year ago.
Diversity demos were 52% Caucasian (vs. 54% a year ago), 22% Latino and Hispanic (21% a year ago), Black moviegoers at 13% (same as a year ago), and 9% Asian American (versus 8%).
Imax and PLFs are driving 40% of the weekend with 12% alone coming from Imax. Separately, 3D is generating 12%. Wicked: For Good is playing everywhere from Canada to Kansas, to LA, to New York City. The AMC Empire in NYC is currently the leading multiplex gross at $285K.
Distribution sources are giving props to Universal: they made an excellent first movie in Wicked, which was not only a blockbuster, but a 10x nominated, 2x Oscar-winning movie. The studio made sure it was perfect for the fans. If the first movie didn’t work, we wouldn’t be where we are this weekend with Wicked: For Good. As we told you first, after a $758.7M global gross and combined production and global P&A of $320M, Wicked delivered $230M in profit in its first cycle to Universal.
The overall weekend for all movies is being calculated at $188.2M, which is -7% behind the same pre-Thanksgiving frame a year ago. That’s a difference of $14.2M, which is not too shabby when you consider we’re without a Gladiator II this time around, which opened to $55M last year at this time, lassoing in the older male demo.
With Wicked: For Good commanding 80% of the weekend, it’s not a situation of all boats rising. Critically acclaimed adult movies, Sony Screen Gems’ R-rated Sisu: Road to Revenge (95% fresh, B CinemaScore), and Searchlight’s Brendan Fraser drama Rental Family (86% certified fresh, A CinemaScore) are respectively filing $2.6M and $3.2M. Why did their studios opt to bow in the face of Wicked: For Good? Basically, it’s all about getting the hold over the Thanksgiving holiday, however, both are very niche in their turnout.
What’s obviously expected for Wicked: For Good is that it’s going to break a whole other round of opening records.
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