The College Football Playoff semifinal slate kicks off on Saturday when No. 2 Michigan takes on No. 3 TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. The Wolverines and Horned Frogs will go head-to-head in a battle that features a college football blue blood and a program that crashed the party in 2022.
Michigan is making its second College Football Playoff appearance in as many years but it is in a much different situation this year. At this time last season, the Wolverines were underdogs to the eventual national champion Georgia Bulldogs, a team that hung its hat on an elite defense. Now, Michigan is favored by a full touchdown against a TCU team that got here by lighting up the scoreboard. The Wolverines defense has been rock-solid all season, but it will be tested by the high-powered Horned Frogs offense. Of course, the Michigan offense has been strong in its own right by averaging over 40 points per game.
TCU was not expected to be here. In Sonny Dykes’ first season as coach of the Horned Frogs, being in the mix for the Big 12 championship would have been considered a win. The team did that and much more. TCU ran the table in the regular season before falling to Kansas State in the conference title game, but that loss didn’t keep it out of the College Football Playoff. Quarterback Max Duggan was the runner-up for the 2022 Heisman Trophy, and he is a big reason the Horned Frogs are dropping an average of 40.3 points per game on their opponents. The issue for TCU will be whether its defense can get enough stops against a physical Michigan offense.
How to watch Fiesta Bowl live
Game: Fiesta Bowl
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31 | Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Three players to watch in Fiesta Bowl
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy: McCarthy started last season’s College Football Playoff matchup against Georgia on the bench. Cade McNamara got the nod for the Wolverines, but McCarthy eventually got into the game in the second half. This season, McCarthy won the job out of training camp, and he gives the Wolverines offense a higher ceiling. In his first full season as the starter, McCarthy has completed 65.3% of his throws for 2,376 yards, 20 touchdowns and three interceptions. In the biggest game of the season so far, the road game against arch-rival Ohio State, McCarthy threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns.
TCU QB Max Duggan : Duggan has the ability to take over a game with some assistance from star wide receiver Quentin Johnston. He did it multiple times throughout TCU’s magical season, and he came close to single-handedly winning the Big 12 championship with his legs. Duggan is an excellent athlete who can beat opponents by throwing from the pocket or escaping to extend the play. This fall, Duggan has amassed 3,321 yards passing, 404 yards rushing and 36 total touchdowns. Michigan’s defense will have its hands full trying to contain him.
Michigan DB Mike Sainristil: Sainristil began his college career as a wide receiver, but he eventually converted to defensive back, and that decision has paid off in a big way. Sainristil is now a key part of the Wolverines defense, and he will be tasked with combatting an explosive TCU passing game. In that respect, Sainristil shouldn’t be lacking confidence. He was one of Michigan’s biggest stars in the team’s win over Ohio State with seven total tackles and a pair of passes defended.
Fiesta Bowl prediction
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
This will be a fascinating game because the ways in which these two teams win are very different. Michigan wouldn’t mind being able to run the ball down its opponent’s throat all day while playing suffocating defense, and TCU feels right at home in high-scoring shootouts. In this game, I think Michigan’s experience and defense are able to win out, but TCU is able to hang around and take it down to the wire. Prediction: TCU +7.5
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