Dec 7, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to throw downfield during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images This is a game that simply lines up well for Tampa Bay. They’re a pass funnel defense, as teams are running roughly 40% of the time against them. Teams are throwing at the sixth-highest rate (60%) against them in 2025.
This is an Atlanta offense that goes with their run game, though. Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season, leaving Kirk Cousins to try to lead the offense. They’re also without Drake London, who is their best receiver by a wide margin.
On the other side, the Bucs are finally getting healthy [somewhat]. Bucky Irving recently returned, and that’s arguably the biggest key for this game. Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are also practicing, which gives two more high-level options for the offense. The only downside is that Cade Otton is doubtful for this game.
The Falcons have performed well against the pass this season. That’s the strongest part of their defense. They’re giving up 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, though, and teams have been able to consistently run the ball against them.
Irving is the best running back for Tampa Bay, although they have multiple options who can find success. They’ll likely lean on him throughout this game with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker mixing in for smaller roles.
The bigger aspect here is that I’m not sure I even favor this Atlanta pass defense. We’ll need to see if Evans and McMillan are in major roles or if they’re limited at all in their returns. Regardless, this is a Tampa Bay offense that comes with a ton of upside, even without them.
I don’t expect Atlanta to find a ton of success offensively, and this is the type of game where the Bucs could score 30+ points if their offense is firing on all cylinders.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 spread | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
