But the other data points since that deal fell apart are less encouraging for Democrats.
A new Monmouth University poll on Tuesday showed Biden’s approval rating on immigration remains in historically bad territory — and is virtually unchanged since before the Senate ramped up immigration talks in December.
Registered voters disapprove of him 71 percent to 26 percent on the issue, compared to 69-26 in December. Independents today disapprove 74-21, and only a slight majority of Biden’s fellow Democrats (54 percent) approve.
A CBS News/YouGov poll last week showed more Democrats approved of Biden on the issue, but independents disapproved by a similar margin: 73-27.
Similarly ominous for Democrats was an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after the deal fell apart.
Despite the deal earning significant support among Senate Republicans who called it a very conservative one, right before their party killed it (and with Donald Trump playing no small part in that), the poll showed blame about evenly split between the parties — with Biden receiving the most. While about 30 percent of registered voters blamed congressional Democrats, congressional Republicans and Trump “a great deal,” 35 percent blamed Biden that much.
About half blamed Democrats, Republicans and Biden at least a “good amount,” but just 39 percent blamed Trump that much.
As concerning for Democrats was how much Americans favored Trump on the issue in that poll. Despite Trump’s having urged Republicans to oppose the border deal, Americans said they trusted him more than Biden on immigration and the border by 18 points, 44-26.
That gap is smaller than it was in an NBC News poll early this month, but it’s similar to earlier polling from Marquette University Law School in November and Bloomberg polling of swing states last month. It’s bigger than the nine-point gap that a USA Today/Suffolk University national poll showed in October.
The gap is also notably more pronounced than the usual gap between congressional Democrats and Republicans. ABC/Ipsos polling since mid-2022 has asked people to choose between the parties on the issue, and Republicans have led by between three and 12 points.
As Republicans were killing the immigration deal two weeks ago, Biden said he would spend the next nine months reminding voters about that fact.
“Every day between now and November, the American people are going to know the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends,” Biden said.
There is a lot of time to drive that message, and perhaps voters haven’t tuned into the issue like they did in New York, where immigration wasn’t as significant a liability for Suozzi as it is nationally. (A late poll showed voters there preferred the Republican nominee on border issues by just nine points.)
But making that case could be more difficult for Biden than it was for Suozzi. Even with the deal and its collapse in the news plenty in recent weeks — and Republicans transparently having killed it, with their own colleagues suggesting they did so for political (read: Trump) reasons rather than principled ones — it doesn’t appear to be something voters are laying at the GOP’s feet.
Nor has the whole thing appeared to recast what looks to be Biden’s most significant policy liability in 2024.
