The 1st District has a partisan lean of R+4, the 2nd District is R+5 and the 3rd, the only district represented by a Democrat, is R+2.
Adding a couple of rural counties to the 1st, for example, could increase the Republican advantage there. Likewise, moving rural counties from the 1st to another district could improve Democrats’ chances in a district dominated by Linn, Black Hawk and Dubuque counties.
“The obvious key to the political effect will be how the lines are drawn,” explained University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle.
University of Northern Iowa political scientist Chris Larimer expects there again will be a large western Iowa congressional district that is less competitive than the others because of a lopsided GOP voter registration advantage. The other three districts likely will be more compact. Whether they become more or less competitive will depend on where lines are drawn.
Given the “national trend of deepening polarization,” Larimer doubts Iowa will see a change from the current pattern of “Democrats largely representing urban areas and Republicans representing more rural areas and districts, with very little crossover.”
Preliminary census data compiled by the Pew Charitable Trust shows Iowa’s rural population decreased 3.2 percent while the urban population grew by 9.2 percent. That suggests there will be more senators and representatives from counties generally represented by Democrats — Polk, Linn, Scott and Black Hawk, for example — and fewer from rural counties.
