PHILADELPHIA – A rookie quarterback starting his eighth NFL game on the road against the league’s best pass rush in a raucous environment is all that stands between the Eagles and Super Bowl LVII.
Sounds easy right?
The context to that is Brock Purdy has got some pretty impressive friends to back him up when the San Francisco 49ers (15-4) visit Philadelphia (15-3) in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
The Niners’ supporting cast is so good that Purdy, dubbed Mr. Irrelevant for being the last pick (No. 262 overall) in the 2022 draft, has already won his first seven starts, including playoff triumphs against Seattle and Dallas.
As a whole, San Francisco hasn’t lost in three months.
The Eagles and 49ers are the only two teams in football with top-five units on both sides of the football.
Philadelphia has the second-ranked defense in the NFL and the offense was a tick behind. San Francisco was No. 1 on the defensive side and fifth on offense despite losing projected starter Trey Lance and veteran backup Jimmy Garoppolo to injury.
HERE IS OUR COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF…
5…PLAYERS TO WATCH
Eagles WR A.J. Brown – Brown is coming off a lackluster three-reception, 22-yard performance in the wild-card rout of the New York Giants in which the Eagles ran for 268 yards. Brown was at least a little unhappy with his lack of traffic in such a high-profile environment and it will be interesting to see if Philadelphia gets him into the offensive flow.
Eagles edge rusher Haason Reddick – If the other shoe is finally going to drop on Purdy it figures to be shaped like Reddick. The Eagles’ star pass rusher has been a terror this season and that continued against the New York Giants last week with 1½ sacks and seven pressures. In a very loud environment, where the offensive line will be a tick slow with silent counts, it’s almost inconceivable Reddick doesn’t get home at least once.
49ers QB Brock Purdy – The Niners have won all seven of Purdy’s starts to date, including the two playoff wins over Seattle and Dallas. He has a 111.4 passer rating in those eight games, including a 66.8 completion percentage, an 8.4 yards-per-attempt average, 16 touchdown passes, and just three interceptions.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Dating back to the regular season, McCaffrey has registered at least one TD in eight consecutive games, which is the longest streak of his career and the longest streak by a member of the 49ers since Hall of Fame WR Terrell Owens accomplished that in 1998.
49ers DE Nick Bosa – Bosa is the presumptive Defensive Player with 18½ sacks and the Niners have made three Championship Game appearances in his four professional seasons. The only time San Francisco failed to go this deep, he suffered an ACL injury in Week 2 of the 2020 season.
4…KEY MATCHUPS
Robbie Gould vs. Perfection – The last thing Philadelphia wants is Robbie Gould on the field attempting a meaningful kick late. The veteran is now a perfect 29 of 29 on field-goal attempts and has made all 38 of his PATs in his postseason career. The 29 consecutive FGs are an ongoing NFL postseason record.
49ers’ run game vs. Eagles’ run defense – Typically the Eagles are OK with the trade-off of playing light boxes up front to eliminate explosive plays on the back end. That sentiment may have to be tweaked against San Francisco because Kyle Shanahan will want to protect his rookie quarterback in a hostile environment, meaning the running game with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel could be the most likely path to victory.
49ers’ Nick Bosa vs. Eagles’ Lane Johnson/Jordan Mailata – Bosa is the odds-on favorite to be the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year after that 18½-sack season while Johnson hasn’t given up a sack since Nov. 22, 2020, against the Cleveland Browns, according to Pro Football Focus, a mind-numbing 29 games, and nearly 1,800 snaps. Something has got to give and perhaps Johnson’s torn adductor muscle tilts things. If it doesn’t, Bosa has the versatility to move to the other side and perhaps give Mailata fits.
Kyle Shanahan vs. Game Management – Shanahan’s lofty reputation as a play-designer and play-caller is well-deserved but he has paid for that with some serious and pretty consistent game-management snafus over the years with the thought being he’s gotten too bogged down in big moments.
3…THINGS TO KNOW
-The 49ers will be playing in their third NFC Championship Game in four years (2019, 2021) and the 16th since 1980, which is the most in the NFL over that span.
-The Eagles are appearing in their seventh championship game since 2001, second in the NFL over that span to New England (!3).
-At 24, Jalen Hurts is the second-youngest QB in NFL history to win 14-plus games behind only Dan Marino, who went 14-2 at 23 with the Miami Dolphins in 1984.
2…X-FACTORS
For the 49ers: RT Mike McGlinchey – The Niners have one of the best left tackles ever in Trent Williams. If McGlinchey, a Warrington, PA native, holds up on the right side, San Francisco will have a real opportunity to slow down the Eagles’ imposing pass rush, something that would give Purdy a chance.
For the Eagles: CB Avonte Maddox – Maddox is set to return for the first time since injuring his toe on Dec. 24 against Dallas. The difference with Maddox on the field vs. off of it has been stark for the Eagles’ defense. The defense is No. 1 in success rate when teams target the slot with Maddox in the lineup and No. 27 when he’s out. Considering how much the 49ers attack the middle of the field with Purdy, getting Maddox back in the lineup could be the difference.
1…PREDICTIONS
John McMullen (15-3, 6-12 vs. the spread) – No rookie quarterback has ever won a conference title game. That’s the history Brock Purdy is swimming upstream against. That said, it’s a pet peeve of mine that so many boil NFL predictions down to quarterback vs. quarterback. There will be 45 teammates joining Purdy and Jalen Hurts at Lincoln Financial Field in what are the two most talented rosters in the NFL.
The luxury of having the better signal-caller gives Philadelphia a greater margin of error and that, along with a home field, should be enough to get the Eagles over the top. Kyle Shanahan, though, has become deft at navigating small paths from his experience with Jimmy Garoppolo while the Eagles are coming off two bye weeks when you factor in the ineptitude of the New York Giants.
This game should be razor close with a Jake Elliott or Robbie Gould kick likely sealing things late.
EAGLES 24, 49ERS 23
Ed Kracz (15-3, 9-9 vs. the spread) –.Remember when the Vikings came to Philly as the No. 2 with the league’s top-ranked defense and an unheralded starting QB in Case Keenum?
The Eagles blew them out. That was the 2017 season.
The comparisons between this 49ers team and the that Vikings team are interesting.
I’m not predicting blowout (it wouldn’t surprise me, though) but I am predicting that the Eagles find a way to get back to the big game for the second time in just six seasons.
EAGLES 24, 49ERS 20
–John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com’s Eagles Today and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John, alongside legendary sports-talk host Jody McDonald every morning from 8-10 on ‘Birds 365,” streaming live on YouTube. John is also the host of his own show “Football 24/7” and a daily contributor to ESPN South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen
