The Chicago Cubs are approaching the finish line, with six games left on their schedule: three against the feisty Miami Marlins and three against a Boston Red Sox team jockeying for its own Wild Card position. With a nor’easter taking hold in Boston this week, however, the Cubs would likely want to avoid playing must-win games in Beantown. Better to clinch a postseason spot sooner than later.
While Chicago’s dreams of finally prying the NL Central crown away from the Milwaukee Brewers officially died last week, the Northsiders are on the verge of securing a spot in the postseason, which is all that really matters in late September. Here’s what the Cubs need to get across the finish line.
What is the Cubs magic number to make the playoffs?
There equation to determine magic number, per MLB.com, is: Games remaining +1 – (Losses by second place team – losses by first place team). So for the purposes of this article, we will compare Chicago to the seventh-place Arizona Diamondbacks — currently the first team out of the NL playoff picture.
Here’s how the math works out: 6 – (74-69) = 1. Since the Cubs hold the tiebreaker over Arizona, we needn’t include the “+1,” which is meant to rule out a mathematical tie. So, with the Cubs five games ahead of the Diamondbacks in the NL Standings, a single Cubs win or Diamondbacks loss will secure a postseason spot for the Northsiders.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Cubs postseason matchups
San Diego Padres or Philadelphia Phillies
The Cubs currently hold the tiebreaker for the No. 4 seed over the No. 5 Padres, who are tied in the standings. Philadelphia, the current No. 6 seed, is a single game back.
If the season ended today, the Cubs would host the Padres for a three-game Wild Card series at Wrigley Field. Should San Diego claim a narrow edge in the season’s final week, the Cubs would fly to the southwest.
If the Phillies surpass San Diego (and potentially also Chicago), then the Cubs could end up facing Philadelphia.
As for which matchup is preferable: San Diego has a far more consistent lineup nowadays, while the Phillies will need elite outcomes from their thinning rotation to really compete. The Jesús Luzardo injury is a huge loss for the Phils. The Cubs still don’t want to face Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez in a double-elimination series, though, and offense is typically Chicago’s strong suit. Their rotation is weak enough to be vulnerable, even against a muted Phillies lineup. So San Diego is probably ideal, if only by the slightest of margins.
Atlanta Braves
Should Chicago fall below both San Diego and Philadelphia, a three-game series with the No. 3 seed Braves would await them. Technically, Atlanta can still surpass the L.A. Dodgers for the No. 2 seed, but the odds are slim to none given Los Angeles’ wealth of talent. So the Braves would probably face the Cubs in what is a fascinating matchup on paper.
Atlanta has by far the most dominant ace in veteran southpaw Chris Sale, although Chicago has hit lefties especially well all season. The Braves’ rotation drops off a steep cliff after Sale, however, so the Cubs’ pitching disadvantage becomes less dramatic. Moreover, the Cubs’ lineup is the deepest in the National League right now. Atlanta has quietly been slumping down the stretch.
There’s a strong chance that, even on the road, Chicago is the favorite in this series — at least in the minds of experts.
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