The yearly tradition of Canelo Álvarez competing on Cinco de Mayo weekend continues on Saturday when he steps in the ring to take on John Ryder.
Álvarez will be putting up his five super middleweight titles on the line and this will be the second time he’ll be defending as the undisputed super middleweight champion.
Ryder will enter the fight as the interim WBO champion and the two will throw down at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico. This will be the first time since 2011 that Álvarez will be fighting in his home country of Mexico.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds and then I’ll give you my best bet for this weekend’s big fight.
Canelo Álvarez vs. John Ryder odds
The odds listed below are via BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Canelo Álvarez -1600
- John Ryder +800
- Draw +2500
Canelo Álvarez vs. John Ryder prediction
The odds tell the story in this fight. Ryder did well to earn this fight against one of the greatest boxers to ever live, but he’s in over his head on this one.
He sports a 32-5 record and lost as recently as 2019, losing via unanimous decision to Callum Smith.
This fight has all the makings of setting a guy up to get an easy win in front of his home town fans, so how should we attack it from a betting angle?
Even if we just want to take Álvarez to win via KO/TKO, you still have to lay -300 juice. So, instead of doing that, let’s try to get aggressive and pick which round he’s going to do it.
I’m going to give Ryder a little bit more credit than most people will and I think he’ll survive until the 11th round.
Most of Canelo’s victories inside the distance haven’t been quick ones lately. In fact, two of his last four fights that he won inside the distance came in the 11th round. Instead of coming out guns blazing, he takes his time to learn his opponents tendencies and then turns things up as the fight goes on.
It’s also worth noting that Ryder has only been finished once in his professional career, losing via 7th round TKO to Nick Blackwell back in 2015. His three latest losses all came via the judges scorecards, so we know he has what it takes to hang in there for the long haul.
I’ll take a shot on Álvarez to win in Round 11, just like he has twice since 2019.
Pick: Álvarez to win in Round 11 (+1200)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
