If you don’t look closely, things seem back to normal at Old Orchard Beach, one of Maine’s most famous summer resorts. The pier is crowded, there are “no vacancy” signs on many motels, and masks are still optional.
But it isn’t the same: There are almost no Canadians, especially the Quebecois whose language is a distinctive spice in a state where most Franco-Americans – a quarter of the population – now speak French, if at all, only at home.
Since the pandemic began, the border has been closed except for “essential” travel. Canadians began welcoming vaccinated Americans back on Aug. 9, producing seven-hour waits on opening day, including three-hour backlogs at Maine border stations.
U.S. restrictions on Canadian visitors remain at least until Aug. 21; at this writing, there’s no indication when that will change. It will be another lost summer for our northern neighbors who’ve flocked south for vacations for a century.
Their absence, to some degree, has been made up by Americans who may not have visited Maine’s coast before. The entire Northeast – mostly vaccinated and cautious – has become a safe haven, even as the Delta variant swamps hospitals in Florida and Texas.
Yet Canada is even safer. Despite having no vaccine manufacturing capability of its own, it leads the world’s developed economies in vaccination rates, with few of the protests and resistance to mandates seen south of the border.
There’s also been scant controversy there about Quebec’s move to build a power line to shift electricity generated from Hydro Quebec, a publicly owned utility, to Massachusetts through Maine, where Central Maine Power has been embattled more than a year.
It was a hoot to hear lawmakers inveighing against “foreign influence” in promoting a bill – vetoed by Gov. Mills – to prohibit Hydro Quebec from spending money to oppose the November referendum, while allowing Texas fossil fuel companies to spend freely in support.
After all, for those in the St. John Valley on down to Washington County – as for Maine Indian tribes like the Micmac (or Mi’kmaq) – family ties extend across the border. The long shutdown has created real hardships and isolation.
As it happens, the first test of post-pandemic, or at least late-pandemic politics will occur in Canada, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a “snap election” for Sept. 20. Trudeau, who led the Liberal Party’s return to power in 2015, lost his parliamentary majority in 2019, but continued to govern in the minority.
Canada’s multi-party system includes at least three “opposition” parties with seats in Parliament. In addition to the Conservatives, now the principal challengers to Trudeau’s re-election, there’s the New Democratic Party, strong in western provinces, and the Bloc Quebecois, which advocates withdrawal from Canada but no longer pushes the issue; a fifth “major party,” the Greens, are now mostly a non-factor.
Trudeau wasn’t obligated to call an election until 2023, but he’s banking that Canada’s vigorous and effective response to the coronavirus will resonate with voters.
He may win the gamble, with the caution that in Canada, federal politics is highly fragmented. Provincial governments, and provincial parties, are stronger than in American states, and swings in one region are not always reflected elsewhere.
The new Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, elected last August, has struggled to define positions the entire party can support. Trudeau has mandated masks, and vaccinations for transportation and health care workers – paralleling Maine’s policies – while O’Toole strongly supports vaccination, but not mandates.
Climate change has emerged as a rallying point for the Liberals, who believe Canada can become a world leader. O’Toole, by contrast, was unable to convince his party convention to declare that “We recognize that climate change is real” in its electoral platform.
Though Americans – and even Mainers – spend most of their news-gathering time ignoring Canada, the September results could be more a bellwether than the only two significant U.S. contests this fall, for governor in New Jersey and Virginia.
In New Jersey, Phil Murphy is cruising to re-election, and would become the first Democrat to serve consecutive terms since Brendan Byrne, way back in the 1970s.
In Virginia, Terry McAuliffe has only a slight lead over the Republican, Trump enthusiast Glenn Youngkin, but that may be attributable to McAuliffe’s bruising style, developed as Bill Clinton’s political fixer, then chair of the DNC.
McAuliffe, who also served from 2014-18 because Virginia, uniquely, allows only a single four-year term – is still likely to prevail, if only because Democrats have dominated the state over the past decade.
Pandemic politics will likely be a minor factor in those two races. For a real look at the new dynamics, Mainers can – for a change – look north.
Douglas Rooks has been a Maine editor, commentator, reporter and author since 1984. His new book is “First Franco: Albert Beliveau in Law, Politics and Love.” The views expressed are those of the writer. He welcomes comment at drooks@tds.net
