3RD UPDATE, Saturday AM: Two releases respecting the theatrical window –Universal’s Old and Paramount’s Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins– are opening at the box office to blah results. But don’t blame the distribution strategy.
However, it’s questionable whether we blame the delta variant.
Just don’t forget, when it comes to box office, it’s all about product, and last weekend it was clear that there was a segment of the audience who was eager to see the long-awaited sequel to 1996’s Space Jam, spending $31.05M. Space Jam: A New Legacy, opened in the face of the delta variant and over-indexed its $20M projection to become the biggest domestic debut for a family movie during the pandemic.
This weekend, the sequel is down -68%, for around $10M in 4th place. But the fact that the film is available for free in HBO Max households has something to do with that.
The mixture of two mediocre studio wide entries, delta concerns and theatrical window experimentation is pushing the overall weekend box office down -27%, with an estimated $66.5M from last weekend’s $91.4M. Disney’s Black Widow, also available in homes on Disney+ Premier, is looking at a third weekend of $10.86M in third place, -58%, which is among the steepest third weekend declines for a Disney MCU movie, alongside Thor: Ragnarok (-62%), Thor: Dark World (-61%), and Doctor Strange (-59%). Black Widow made $3.5M yesterday, -56% from a week ago.
And in regards to the M. Night Shyamalan notching the lowest wide opening of his career with Old with $15.75M after a $6.88M Friday, and Paramount’s Snake Eyes seeing $14M after a $5.5M Friday, it’s clear from the respective exits of these films, a CinemaScore of C+ and B-, that no one was ever excited about these movies.
Add to that an awful 61% positive, 37% recommend for Old from Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak and a 69% positive and 46% recommend for Snake Eyes. And the respective Rotten Tomatoes scores for both films at 52% Rotten and 42% aren’t exactly advertising ‘must-see’.
It’s hard to blame the delta variant here, as both movies are opening right in line with their expectations. However, there is a case to be made about the avid moviegoer being fearless about returning to the cinema, while the casual moviegoer may still be reluctant.
All of this said, there remains a 76% comfort level with moviegoing during the pandemic, according to a recent poll by NRG, and the stock market rebounded yesterday after delta variant jitters earlier this week, with the Dow jumping 200 points to close above 35,000 for the first time. At the same time, LA County saw an 80% spike in Covid-19 cases this week when compared to last week.
Some rival marketing suits tell me that the problem with Old was that the ads didn’t have the extra grab factor in regards to why people should go out and see this tropical horror movie about upper middle class vacationers who age hysterically during a day’s journey at the beach. When you have a director known for his twists, it’s impossible to include that in the trailers. Some blame the sluggishness of Snake Eyes on the fact that Henry Golding isn’t a marquee draw. But we can’t use the same excuse for Old. Shyamalan as filmmaker is the drawing power for his films, and his other titles with fresh face casts, i.e. The Visit ($25.4M) and Split ($40M), opened significantly better.
Also in regards to Snake Eyes, as I mentioned yesterday, Paramount and Hasbro haven’t exploited the G.I. Joe properties aggressively like Transformers in the last 12 years. Why, then, should anyone suddently care about Snake Eyes? If you’re going to reboot the franchise with a $110M spin-off, best to make a movie which wins on all fronts like a Marvel movie, and rises above its fanboy kitschy IP. Make it smarter than it’s suppose to be. G.I. Joe in the 1980s wasn’t all toy and TV show: the IP had a great long-running storyline in the Marvel comics, with some fantastic cliffhangers, a great read in a Reagan Economics America. I’m sure Paramount could have easily sent Snake Eyes to Paramount+. However, it’s part of a cinema franchise, and best not to tarnish that, even if there’s another, more improved G.I. Joe movie down the road.
Old pulled in an even split of men and women, with 61% over 25, with 58% falling between 18-34 years old. Diversity breakdown was 44% Caucasian, 27% Latino, 15% Black, & 14% Asian/other. The pic’s dominant territory was the West (14 out of the pic’s top 20 were in the West; 13 in LA) with the East and Southwest also overperforming. Close to 20% of Old‘s business came from premium large format screens.
Guys at 66% showed up for Snake Eyes, with a little over half the audience being under 25, and 26% under 17, with 45% falling between 18-34 years old. Diversity demos were 42% Caucasian, 20% Black, 20% Asian/other, and 18% Latino. The West and the South were the best-grossing areas for the Robert Schwentke-directed film, with PLF and Imax repping around a third of the spinoff’s grosses.
Roadside Attractions’ pick-up of Solstice Studios’ Joe Bell saw $243,6K on Friday, for an estimated $674K 3-day at 1,094 theaters in 171 markets. Mark Wahlberg plays a small town, working class father who embarks on a solo walk across the US to crusade against bullying after his son is tormented in high school for being gay.
Pic is based on a true story and has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 38% Rotten. Audience exits countered that with 79% positive on PostTrak and a 57% recommend. Nearly even spit here between males and females, with 76% over 25 with 56% over 35 years old. Diversity demos were 60% Caucasian, 24% Latino, 8% Black and 8% Asian/other. West and Mid-West were the best territories for Joe Bell. However, overall, there were mediocre results.
Let’s just hope the studios don’t assess this mediocre weekend to be something more severe and start pushing event films out of the theatrical schedule, or even worse, sending them to their streaming services.
Weekend estimates for July 23-25:
Old (Uni) 3,355 theaters, Fri $6.88M/3-day $15.75M/Wk 1
Snake Eyes (Par) 3,521 theaters Fri $5.5M/3-day: $14M/Wk 1
Black Widow (Dis) 4,250 theaters (-25)/Fri $3.5M (-56%)/3-day $10.86M (-58%)/Total $154M/Wk 3
Space Jam: A New Legacy (WB) 4,002 theaters (+37) Fri $3.05M (-77%)/ 3-day: $10M (-68%)/Total $51.08M/Wk 2
F9 (Uni) 2,850 theaters (-518), Fri $1.33M (-41%)3-day $4.46M (-42%)/Total: $163.1M/ Wk 5
Escape Room: Tournament of Champions (Sony) 2,815 theaters Fri $1.055M (-72%)/3-day $3.2M (-64%)/Total: $15.8M/Wk 2
Boss Baby: Family Business (Uni) 2,773 theaters (-676), Fri $780K (-49%)/3-day $2.57M (-46%)/total $50M/Wk 4
Forever Purge (Uni) 2,113 (-622) theaters Fri $700K (-46%)/3-day $2.35M (-43%)/Total $40.3M/Wk 4
A Quiet Place 2 (Par) 1,367 (-628) theaters Fri $375K (-47%)/3-day $1.195M (-47%)/Total $157.4M/Wk 9
Roadrunner (Foc) 954 (+27) theaters, Fri $250K (-68%), 3-day $790K (-60%)/Total $3.66M/Wk 2
2ND UPDATE, midday Friday: M. Night Shyamalan is looking at another No. 1 domestic opening with Old, which looks to be earning an estimated $6.5M on Friday. Including Thursday previews, it’s on its way to a $15 million three-day gross at 3,355 theaters.
If Old stays on track this weekend, it will rep the filmmaker’s sixth No. 1 debut after The Sixth Sense, Signs, The Village, Split and Glass. In a box office that continues to be ruled by brands, Old is a completely original film, which is important to note. That said, Old is also bound to be Shyamalan’s lowest wide-release opening at the domestic box office, charting below 2006’s Lady in the Water ($18M).
Paramount’s Snake Eyes is taking second with $5M for today and a $12.5M opening at 3,521 theaters. While Paramount provided a steady stream of Transformers movies between 2007 and 2018, G.I. Joe films have been spread farther apart, the last movie Retaliation being eight years ago.
On the theatrical-day-and-date homefront, Disney’s Black Widow looks to be down 60% in weekend 3 with $10.4M, while Warner Bros’ Space Jam: A New Legacy, after a $31.05M opening weekend, looks to be even lower.
UPDATED, Friday AM: Universal’s Old grossed $1.5M on Thursday night from 2,750 theaters that began showtimes at 7PM. This topped the Thursday night results for Paramount’s Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins which did $1.4M, also starting at 7PM at 2,662 theaters. Both titles are respecting a theatrical window.
As far as who wins at the box office, Old or Snake Eyes, it’s a game of rock-paper-scissors between the studios as both pics are expected to land at the top of the charts with mid teen results. Old plays in 3,355 theaters today while Snake Eyes is booked in 3,521.
iSpot, which monitors TV spend among the studios, shows Old outspending Snakes Eyes as of last night, $13.5M to $6.9M. The Old TV campaign drew 621.5M impressions while Snake Eyes pulled in 612.6M.
The result for M. Night Shyamalan’s Old is ahead of other recent genre pandemic wide releases’ preview nights, i.e. Escape Room: Tournament of Champions ($1.2M) and Forever Purge ($1.33M) as well as the filmmaker’s 2015 thriller The Visit ($1M), but it’s behind his Thursday previews of 2016’s Split ($2M, 7PM start) and 2019’s Glass ($3.7M, 7PM).
‘Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins’ Review: Henry Golding Ramps Up The Action Figure & Revives Hasbro Franchise
G.I. Rise of Cobra previously grossed $2.3M in Thursday night previews that began at 7PM.
So far from 124 reviews, Old has clocked 56% Rotten. It’s actually a great movie to see on the big screen, but Shyamalan divides audiences with his clever endings. Old‘s RT is ahead of Glass (37% Rotten), but behind Visit (68% fresh) and Split (77% certified fresh).
Snakes Eyes is 41% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes from 66 reviews, ahead of 2009’s G.I.: Rise of Cobra (34% Rotten) and 2013’s G.I. Joe: Retaliation (29% Rotten).
Warner Bros’ second weekend of Space Jam: A New Legacy and Disney’s third weekend of Black Widow, which are also available on their respective studios’ streaming platforms, could mess up the one-two ranking of Old and Snake Eyes. Space Jam 2 is expecting a 48%-58% second-weekend decline between $13 million-$16 million, while Black Widow‘s third weekend is figured at a 45% decline for $14M. Black Widow has been beating Space Jam 2 at the daily box office from Monday to Thursday. Last night, the MCU origin movie posted an estimated $2.3M to Space Jam 2‘s $2.06M; their respective running cumes being $143.1M and $41.9M.
Snake Eyes is also debuting in 37 offshore markets in 5,093 locations this weekend (roughly a third of the overall international footprint) including: Australia, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Others Middle East, Panama, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia & Montenegro, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Trinidad, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. In pre-pandemic times, the first G.I. Joe did a 50/50 domestic-foreign split in its global $302.5M, while Retaliation which had the star power of Dwayne Johnson, Bruce Willis and Channing Tatum was 67%-33%, foreign-domestic in its $375.7M WW take.
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